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November 8, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some snow & near/record cold temperatures ahead.

Posted: Nov 8, 2019 2:52 PM
Updated: Nov 8, 2019 5:09 PM

Lows this morning ran 13-21.  All, but the far northeast dropped into the teens.

Overall, it was the coldest November 8 morning since the great Arctic outbreak of 1991.  Prior to that, only 1976 is comparable with such cold lows.

Wind chills this morning dropped to as low as 4-12 over the viewing area.

This is nearly a month earlier than the normal first occurrence of 16 in parts of the area.

After clouds increase tonight to mostly cloudy skies by early tomorrow morning, clouds should break up/clear out, followed by some increasing clouds again late in the day-evening.

Tightening isobars show gusty winds Saturday at 15-32 mph from the southwest.

Highs of 45-50 are likely, but the strong winds from the southwest will make it feel more like 36-42.

This, after lows tonight of 20-26, then rising to 26-30 late.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs 45-56 from north to south, as cold front will reach the northwestern counties first.

Once the front passes afternoon-evening, temperatures will fall into the 30s.

Winds 8-18 mph for much of the day, will increase quickly once the front passes with wind shift from southwest to northwest.

As the cold rushes in, winds may gust to 30 mph.

It appears that a secondary cold front will pass Monday morning.

This front will bring the bulk of the really cold air.

It will keep temperatures in the 20s to around 30 Monday with north-northwest to north winds gusting 35-45 mph at times.

A period of snow are likely along & just behind the front (possibley some patchy freezing drizzle at the onset).

1" or less of accumulation is possible Monday with the very minor accumulating snow falling mostly in the 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. time frame.  A few slick spots are possible on bridges & overpasses, as well as less-traveled roads here & there, however.  Other roads look wet.

Right now, the +1" to 3" band is north & northeast of our area, but we will monitor to see if that shifts.

Some lake effect snow flurries/snow showers may follow, but accumulation looks very light & mainly confined to areas over our northeastern & eastern counties.

Strong winds with gusts to 40 mph will continue into Monday night.  With lows 13-18, wind chills may drop to -7 to 0.

Widespread near/record cold is likely early next week in the central & Eastern U.S.

This cold will be very much like that experienced at nearly this same time last year, also in 1995 & 1986.

Just like last winter, new data is suggesting that much of Florida may end up completely immune to the Arctic air.  There may be very little cool-down in central & southern Florida with only the far northern edge seeing 30s & 40s.  Lows may remain now in the 60s at Orlando & Tampa.  This is a result of that semi-permanent Southeast ridge over very warm Gulf & Caribbean water.

Meanwhile teens & 20s may occur from Texas to Georgia.  The Appalachians may block some of the worst cold reaching the Carolinas, but 27-32 is still possible there.

After temperatures moderate briefly Thursday of next week (with strong winds as clipper passes), we chill back Friday-Saturday with highs in the 20s & 30s & lows in the teens.

However................

Big Southeast ridge flexes its muscles right after the mid-point of November with an impressive surge of warmth!

Check out the 60s suddenly headed for Iowa after lows near 0!

Note the warmth races our way!

Showers & isolated storms are possible as a system passes through with the warmth.  Note how far north the rain is.....northern Wisconsin, Michigan, even Ontario.

Cold snap will follow, then warmth races in again.....................

Here comes the warmth in very late November to early December (after that mentioned cold snap from first brief warm spell just after mid-point of November).

This also looks like a wetter than normal time.  Mild weather may continue (overall) for the first half of December.

Severe weather in the South (potentially pretty robust severe risk) may occur Texas to Alabama....& then an area in the Carolinas.

This system is largely rain from the Plains to the South.

Cold West, warm East in the early half of December!  Some unseasonable 50s to 60s could occur here at times.

Even some thunder & lightning could at times.

It also looks wetter tha normal with welcome rainfall & heavy snowfall in the Far & Intermountain West & above normal rainfall from Texas to our area & over the upper South. 

After the mild weather, here comes the Arctic Blast for later December.

The first winter storm event may take place very near or just after Christmas.

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Turning Warmer & More Humid, Then Big Cool-Down
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