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November 7, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

The ups & downs of the next 1.5 months!

Posted: Nov 7, 2019 9:15 PM
Updated: Nov 7, 2019 10:38 PM

After a few light showers & sprinkles last night to early this morning, then a few morning to midday flurries around, we cleared the skies out this afternoon.

It was a breezy to windy day with peak gusts to 30 mph.

Highs occurred very early this morning at 37-47 with temperatures falling into the 30s, then 20s.

Temperatures as of 9:15 p.m. are 21-28 over the area west-southwest to east-northeast.

A couple flurries are possible tonight-early Friday morning in the far northeast with some cloudiness in our east.  All courtesy of Lake Michigan.

This will result in lows varying from 17 to 25 from west to southwest to east to northeast over the area.

Wind chills early Friday morning should run 7-16.

Wave of cloudiness should pass tomorrow morning-midday from the northwest, followed by clearing, then areas of increasing clouds from the northwest in the evening.

Highs of 33-38 are likely tomorrow with northwest wind turning to the southwest.

Lows tomorrow night, with mostly cloudy skies, should run 23-27 with an increasing southwest wind turning to the south-southwest.

Temperatures may even rise to 25-29 late.

Saturday looks windy with partly cloudy skies overall.  Southwest winds may gust 30-40 mph at times throughout the day with highs of 45-50. 

Saturday night looks mostly cloudy to cloudy & windy with a couple isolated showers to patchy drizzle developing.

Temperatures should be steady in the 40s.

On a windy, mostly cloudy Sunday, cold front should pass midday-afternoon with initial highs of 46-56, then falling.  A couple isolated showers/drizzle may accompany the passage of the front.

Some scattered snow showers are then possible late Sunday night-Monday (with some lake component).

A few places may get a dusting or have their grass whitened.

It will be a windy, cold Veteran's Day with highs only 25-31 with wind chills averaging around 10-19.  Such highs would be at/near record low levels for the date.

A few lake effect snow showers are possible Tuesday with more lake clouds east half & more sun west half (after morning lows of 13-18 west & 19-22 east [warmer in the east due to lake effect cloudiness]).

It will be a breezy to windy & cold day with highs 24-29 with wind chills near 10 to 20.  Such highs would be at/near record low levels for the date.

Winds will diminish mid to late afternoon & lake effect snow showers & cloudiness will, as well.

Tuesday night looks cold & frosty with a calm wind with 1036 mb Arctic surface high right overhead.

Lows of 8-14 are likely, which is near record low levels.  At the very least, it looks like the coldest weather overall so early in the season since 1995.

Wednesday looks bright & a a bit warmer at 31-36 with a light wind, followed by 19-25 Wednesday night, then rising to 22-27.

Thursday looks windy with highs 44-49 with southwest winds gusting potentially +40 mph at times, followed by strong west to northwest winds Thursday night.

Once the cold front passes, some snow showers are possible Thursday night with lows 19-25.

Brief Arctic shot follows after that, followed by a BIG FLIP!!

Note how increidbly far north the green gets in this model animation.

That is very mild air surging all the way to northern Quebec.  Rain may fall that far to the north as a wild temperature swing occurs with strong storm diving into southern California.

Southern California will go from fires & dry weather to cool rains with mudslide & debri flow risk.

We go from cold, largely dry weather, to wetter, much warmer weather.  It will still be windy, though.

Note the rainfall & a few storms passing just after mid-month:

It is a sudden & complete pattern flip (albeit brief) with temperatures surging above to well-above normal over our area & all over the Midwest, Central & Eastern U.S.  Our highs may reach the 50s & 60s with strong southwest winds gusting +35 mph at times.

Looks like some severe weather risk will develop Texas to Tennessee with us potentially getting 1" of rainfall.

Shot of cold air with below normal temperatures should follow.

However, new data is suggesting that the true, bitterly-cold, Arctic air may end up affecting the Northeast more than here.

Note how that bitterly cold air bleeds down the Appalachians & gets trapped in the Carolinas & Georgia.  That air is dense & cold & can't get over the peaks, so it stays on the eastern slopes & Piedmont.  So, temperatures will run way below normal there for a few days.

However, note the BIG warm-up in the Rockies & Northern Plains as we approach Thanksgiving time period.

Near/after Thanksgiving & right through early December averages warmer than normal in central & eastern U.S., but colder than normal in the Rockies & especially the Desert Southwest to northwestern Mexico.

So, deep upper trough West, big upper ridge East.

I do foresee it being wetter than normal.

Some substantial severe risk (ENHANCED RISK-type) may develop Texas to Alabama (& another area in part of the Carolinas) in early December on multiple occasions.

This is what will likely transpire once we get beyond the mid-point of December (see the temperature anomalies below) .

Temperatures should drop below normal with Arctic air intrusions for latter half of December.

At this point, I evidence still leads to the first substantial winter weather event (snow, ice) taking place near or just after Christmas.

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