SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

November 6, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Big changes ahead!

Posted: Nov 6, 2019 2:37 PM
Updated: Nov 6, 2019 6:28 PM

It has been a nice, mild, windy today.  A windy streak, 12 of the past 18 days have featured daily peak gusts of at least 30 mph here at the television station.

Highs today ran in the 50s to near 60.

After clouds this morning, we saw the period of clearing, now clouds are rolling back in.

A few showers are possible later this evening tonight as the dry air is very slowly overcome.

Spotty rain/snow to spotty snow/flurries will occur tomorrow morning to midday.

Some clearing will follow.

After lows 35-44 tonight, temperatures will drop & level off aroun 32-36 tomorrow, then fall to 27-32 by early evening.  Wind chills will run in the 20s before dropping to the upper teens by early evening.

Any snowfall acccumulation would be very light & brief & mainly confiend to lake effect streamer you see in the end of the model forecast below.

Winds will be strong from the north at 20-35 mph.

Some lake effect clouds & a few flurries will keep our northeastern counties at 20-25 tomorrow night.  The western & southwestern counties will be coldest at 17-19.

Wind chills in the viewing area will run 9-16.

The heaviest rainfall will stay south of our area in that plume of deep moisture from the subtropical Pacific.  Note the disturbed weather well southwest of Baja California & the moisture being pumped northeastward.  1-1.5" of rainfall may occur in the far southern parts of Illinois & Indiana.

Meanwhile, the cold from shows up well with the snow over Michigan, Wisconsin to Iowa.

Actually, this deep, deep moisture plume in the subtropical jet & our dynamic clipper could combine to bring a Nor'Easter or the first big snowstorm of the season for the Northeast.

You can see the pieces come together.  Cold air with strong polar jet & active subtropical jet favor big winter storms like these.

This is a clear sign of a wet phase MJO.  In this data below we see that we are in a medium Phase 5, headed for Phase 6. 

These are two phases that favor above normal rainfall in November from Texas & New Mexico to Indiana & New England.  It also favors a warmer-than-normal trend as we approach & get to Phase 6.

November 8-9 is a wet MJO phase for us with a big transition right over our area from warmer than normal to cooler than normal.

Phase 7 focuses cold air in the Plains & parts of the Midwest.  This phase will correspond with our dislodging of cold air from typhoon(s) early next week.  So, it helps to enhance the cold even more (all we would need for it to really, really bottom out would be a weakening of the Polar Vortex, a strongly-negative NAO & AO & a deep snowpack..................we will not have those two as much......if we did, it would be significant record cold).

We are forecast to go from low-influence Phase 8 to a 1, which is cooler, wetter to mild & very wet transition.

These are the trends when the MJO has the GREATER influence.

Obviously, there are other players on the court, as three rounds of cold will blast in with near/record cold at times up to mid-month.

These will occur as remnants of Category 5 Typhoon Halong & possibly another typhoon bomb out over the Bering Sea & western Alaska, dislodging the unusually cold air.

The deeper moisture is pushed just south of our area.

Again, a weather pattern is dictated by different players on the court exuding their influence.  One player may dominate another or a couple palers may blend to bring about a more enhanced result.

Warm, wet surge should briefly come in near mid-month, followed by Arctic Blast again.

After a mostly sunny to sunny start Friday (other than some lake effect cloudiness & a few flurries in the northeast), wave of mid-level cloudiness should pass late morning to midday & early afternoon, turning skies mostly cloudy for a while.  Then, skies should clear again in the mid to late afternoon.

Winds will run northwest, then west, then southwest at 10-15 mph.

Highs will run 32-38 from northeast to southwest.

Saturday looks windy & warmer with highs 47-52 with strong southwest winds gusting up to 40 mph with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies back & forth.

With mostly cloudy skies, lows Saturday night will run at just 42-45 & may rise some late to 44-47 with southwest winds up to 35 mph at times.

Strong cold front will pass Sunday, so after early highs of 47-55, temperatures should drop quickly to the 30s.  Any scattered showers/thunder should quickly change to a few snow showers & flurries.

Winds may gust up to 45 mph from the southwest, then northwest to north.

Monday should feature a few snow showers & flurries with strong north winds & partly cloudy skies with highs 25-29.

Again, here is that Sunday-Monday evolution:

Highs 20s to 30s should dominate Tuesday-Wednesday with lows near 10 to 15.

This would be the coldest weather so early in the year since 1995 (last year's was just a hair later & just a hair warmer, but still near/record cold).

As big Nor'Easter may wind up on the East Coast, a clipper with strong winds may pass Thursday with a few rain/snow to snow showers & gusts +40 mph.

After very brief temperature moderation, more cold will dominate & active subtropical jet may fuel a southern winter weather event or winter storm.  Could ride up the East Coast as Nor'Easter in this pattern.  We will monitor.

Then, all of the sudden we skyrocket temperature-wise.

We may go from teens & 20s to 60s in a couple of days.

Widespread soaking rainfall & some storms may impact the area.

Severe risk may evolve Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana & Mississippi.  Enough CAPE may get far enough northeast for MARGINAL RISK to southern Illinois.  We shall see.

I will be pretty impressive to see the turn-a-round as big bowling ball rolls into California with rain.

It is great for the wildfire situation, but bad for potential of debir flows & mudslide with hillside devoid of vegetation from the fires.

A couple of shots of Arctic air should impact us in late November.

Then......................there is no cold air to be had to end November & move right through early December!

Impressive mildness should result.

Precipitation looks above normal through.

Cooler West/Southwest.....warmth elsewhere!

We should see a return to Arctic air in latter December with the first winter weather events & storms of the season near or just after Christmas.

Article Comments

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Icy roads tonight as temperatures approach record cold levels.
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