November 5, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Near/record cold early next week with coldest weather so early in 24 years, then big warm-up before Arctic Blast returns.

Posted: Nov 5, 2019 1:38 PM
Updated: Nov 5, 2019 9:55 PM

As two massive storms (one being remnants of Category 5 Typhoon Halong) race toward western Alaska, these will help to dislodge Arctic outbreaks southward.  Typhoons are often instrumental in early-season cold outbreaks here & we have had these recently in that area.

MJO says warm & wet, NAO is not overly negative, but the main forecasting player is the northwest & north Pacific for our weather right now & this will be the case for a few weeks.


So, highs today ran 45-53 after 53-58 yesterday.

After clear skies for a while, we should see some increasing clouds & after lows 28-33, we should rise to 31-36 very late.

This will occur due to the clouds & a very light wind going to the southeast at 5 mph.

Clouds will be on a general increase tomorrow with southeast winds early going to the south to south-southwest at 15-30 mph.

Highs will run 50s to around 60.  If we could make it a mostly sunny day, 60s would be attainable, but increasing clouds should hold the temperature back.

Arctic front is speeding up, so we may have showers developing by Wednesday evening, followed by showers Wednesday night.

Showers should change to some snow showers around late Wednesday night-Thursday morning with falling temperatures (from 40-47) & gusty north to northeast winds at 20-35 mph.

Also, a band of lake effect snow showers is possible for a while Thursday as temperatures will already have fallen to 31-36 by around midday with 28-32 by late afternoon (wind chills teens to lower 20s).

Localized dustings on the grass or whitening of the grass are possible, but not everyone will see that.

Up to 6" of snow may fall in southern Wisconsin.

Strong Arctic high overhead will give way to increasing clouds & shift of winds to the southwest with substantial warm-up for part of the weekend.

Potent storm system will pivot through Sunday morning, quelling much day time warmth.

Strong southwest winds to 30-40 mph early will be followed by north to northwest winds up to 45 mph at times.

You already see those 30-40 mph gusts from the south-southwest to southwest Sunday morning here:

Moisture will be lacking as it will all be tied up in Texas, south Florida, Cuba & the deep Gulf as Arctic high should gut a lot of it in the northern Gulf.

A narrow, broken line of gusty showers is possible Sunday with an isolated rumble of thunder, followed by a few snow showers & flurries.

Some lake effect snow showers & flurries will follow late in the day & Sunday night to Monday for the area.

Localized dusting or whitening of the grass is possible, but not everyone will see that in the viewing area.

Temperatures will tank Sunday to 20s in the afternoon followed by teens Sunday night, then only 24-29 for highs Monday!

Wind chills may reach 4-10 Sunday night.

Near/record cold day & night time temperatures are possible Monday-Wednesday morning of next week. 

Near/record cold next week (comparisons for the time of year to 2018, 2014, 1995, 1986, 1920, 1913, 1911, 1908, 1894 with lows 8-16)............1995, 1986 were the coldest of this time. 

Another look at lows early next week....impressive for early- to mid-November!

November 14, 2018 was the coldest morning so early in the season in 23 years.  I think we will surpass that & end up with the coldest temperatures so early in the year in 24 years early next week.  Again, you can already see the similarities to last fall & winter.

The record for West Lafayette for November 14 anyway morning was 8 set in 1986.  Other records are 12-15.

Records go back to 1879. The earliest a temperature of 13 or less has been record in West Lafayette was 10 in the historic Arctic outbreak of November 3, 1951. However, unofficial records from Greater Lafayette show a low of 9 in late October 1869 after an unseasonable 9" snowfall.

Lows of November 14 of last year:

These are very impressive temperature anomalies working southward early- to mid-next week.

Temperatures may run 30-35 degrees below normal in Tennessee.

Temperatures may drop to 26 degrees below normal in northern Florida.

Even the Bahamas & Cuba, surrounded by warm water, drop below normal.

The 32-degree line may go all the way to Ocala, in inland Florida with 36-41 possible in Orlando & 48-52 Miami.

Strong Alberta Clipper system may bring howling winds Thursday.

The pressure gradient between the retreating Arctic high & the strong low may bring a period of southwest wind gusts to 50 mph Thursday.

Once the cold front goes through, wind should decrease to gusts of up to 30 mph.

An isolated shower or two is possible with brief, sudden warm-up.

However, brief, potent shot of Arctic air should follow with a few lake effect snow showers & flurries in our north & northeast.

A sudden surge of warmth with 50s & 60s is possible just after mid-month with some showers & storms, followed by a couple more Arctic blasts.  A couple very minor snows are possible.

Very late November through early December looks overall mild at the moment, but it may end up wetter than normal.

Here comes the surge of consistently mild weather!

Here we are at around Thanksgiving.  Note the mild surge headed our way & the last vestiges of the Arctic Blasts over Quebec.

The supply will need to reload for a while, as there will not be a big reservoir of it after it is bled.

With this consistently warmer weather coming in, the first of several system of rainfall will arrive around the 29-30th.

Mild weather should dominate into early December overall.

Note how the below normal temperature anomalies depart with time with the Southeast & Northeast seeing them last.

Thoughts are that the cold & snow should blast in during the latter half of December (after a nice, mild first half).  The first winter substantial weather event of the winter is possible near or just after Christmas.

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Warmer, dry weather is ahead for the weekend.
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