Surface low should undergo rapid deepening/strengthening over the next several hours on a track from Danville, Illinois to Rensselaer.
With that, note how a spoke of gusty showers develop on the eastern quadrant of the low as it strengthens. The potential is there for an isolated rumble of thunder as temperatures rise a few degrees over the next few hours & the dynamic & kinematic fields support strong upward motion of the air through the troposphere. This spoke will pivot through very quickly. With it, some localized 40-50 mph gusts are possible.
Total rainfall looks like 1" or less by tomorrow, though. Heavier rainfall will stay well to our south & southeast.
Meanwhile, severe weather will ramp up from far southeastern Indiana & Kentucky to far southern Ohio & southward with this rapid strengthening.
Note the core of a few localized 40-50 mph gusts during the overnight over a brief period as the surface low quickly races northeastward through the viewing area.
Morning spotty showers & drizzle with cold, gusty west to west-southwest winds of up to 43 mph will turn to some drying & gradual clearing in the afternoon. The winds will continue to be gusty from the west to west-southwest through the afternoon up to 40 mph, but will diminish to 25 mph gusts after 5:30 p.m.
Highs should slowly climb to 47-53 after 44-48 in the morning.
Note how the remnants of Super Typhoon Yutu give the cold a nudge & it just dumps southward into our area. This will occur as this big storm pushes warmth into Alaska.
This is just about to be set in motion............
So, this Arctic front will be on the move southward, but not before a breezy Wednesday with sunshine & highs 46-52. Thursday will feature highs 45-51.
With wave of low pressure along the front, rain will begin to move in late Thursday-Thursday night.
As we cool to 31, a changeover to snow before ending is possible.
Cold air aloft & troughiness will be snow showers in the forecast for Friday off & on all day. Winds will be gusty with steady temperatures at 33-36.
With lows of 19-25 Friday night-Saturday morning, wind chills may drop to 8-15.
Snowfall accumulations Friday morning to Friday afternoon to night looks minor with the grass, cartops & roofs, trees, whitened in less than 1" of snow.
It looks like a situation of the grass being whitened late Thursday night-Friday morning, then it melts, but snow showers may re-whiten it at times Friday to Friday night.
Although slow to warm at first, we should eventually see a big warm-up with the potential of 60 or 60s briefly near mid-month. However, strong Arctic front with strong winds will pass, causing a big temperature plunge.
I still think somewhere as this Arctic air blasts into the southern U.S., a coastal storm will develop. It will probably take shape over Texas. This will ridge the Gulf Coast & could turn into a significant early-season Nor'Easter with snowfall as far south as Louisiana & wind & high tides along the East Coast. Heavy snowfall could fall just inland from the big cities with flooding rainfall along the coast.
One remarkable feature of this potential storm would be a band of heavy wet snow from northern Louisiana, through Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia (even to Atlanta) & through the Appalachians.
It will get interesting!
Timing is in question, but analogs point to a big Nor'Easter! We shall see!
Here, it would tend to just re-enforce the second round of unseasonably cold air with strong north winds. This could very well send a lake effect snow band as far south as White & Tippecanoe counties with that projectory. Granted, it would be minor central & southern White/Tippy, but more substantial farther northward in the viewing area, like over Jasper, western Pulaski to far northern White counties.
- November 5, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update............Low Pressure Deepening & Yutu's Push
- November 3, 8 PM Weather Forecast Update: More Wind & Rain, Isolated Severe Risk & Yutu's Effects Here
- November 11, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 12, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 22, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 11, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 27, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 28, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update: Active!
- November 1, 4:30 PM Weather Update
- 10 PM Forecast Update