November 3, 8 PM Weather Forecast Update: More Wind & Rain, Isolated Severe Risk & Yutu's Effects Here

This is an active forecast with rain, wind, storms (isolated severe) & the dislodging of an Arctic Blast courtesy of Yutu.........& another round of cold down the road.

Posted: Nov 3, 2018 7:04 PM
Updated: Nov 3, 2018 9:48 PM

After patchy dense fog this morning with lows upper 20s to lower 30s, skies have been largely partly cloudy today until the increasing clouds late this afternoon-evening.  Highs today reached 51-56.

Clouds have been on the increase late this afternoon-evening.  An isolated shower or two is possible.

Band of rain with an isolated storm or two will pass tomorrow, but the rain will become more scattered late in the day.

Any rainfall before noon looks very spotty, but after that we are fair game for widespread rainfall to move in.

Cold should pass as a line of gusty showers late tomorrow evening-night, ending the rainfall.

Tomorrow will be a windy day with south-southeast winds 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph

Highs will run in the 50s to around 60.

The severe weather should stay well southwest & south of our area Sunday-Sunday night.

Just as quickly as the rainfall exits Sunday night, it should return later Monday, along with increasing southeast wind that will become southerly with gusts to 30 mph.

Band of widespread rainfall with perhaps an isolated storm or two will pass Monday evening up to Monday night.  Highs will run in the 50s & 60s.

Note all of the severe storms south & southeast of our area late Monday & into Monday night (southern Indiana & Ohio to the Gulf Coast).

Surface low pressure should be rapidly deepening as it pivots through central Illinois to Chicago, increasing our wind gusts to up to 40 mph as the cold front approaches.

It does appear that a narrow squall line will likely pivot around the southeastern side of the surface low.  It may have very little, it any, lightning with it, but the pressure drop/rise & very strong wind fields at low levels with bits of CAPE (our temperatures will be in the 60s) could allow a few isolated severe gusts +58 mph to reach the ground.

This would tend to pass 2 a.m.-4 a.m., it appears.

After dry slot passes with clearing, low clouds will pivot back in Tuesday morning with a few showers & strong, howling west to northwest winds of 30-50 mph.  Some clearing is possible later in the day.

After highs in the 60s around 2-4 a.m. Tuesday, temperatures will fall all day through the 50s & into the 40s.

Wednesday looks like a dry, calmer, mostly sunny day with highs 48-54.

Some showers are possible late Thursday as Arctic front arrives.

This will all occur as the remnants of Super Typhoon Yutu merges with an extratropical storm system & nearly/bombs out in eastern Siberia.  This will create a big ridge over Alaska, which will dislodge a chunk of very cold air that will not modify much due to western Canada snowpack.  Also, a very quiet with a lack of sunspots will only enhance this cold.

This air will arrive Friday with strong, gusty northwest winds & highs only 33-38.  Some scattered snow showers are possible in the viewing area, though nothing of any significant is expected.  If any accumulation would occur it would be minor.  Lows Friday night may drop to lows of 17-21.

It should warm up pretty quickly after this fluke wave of Arctic air.  It may be above normal just before mid-month again with a round of rain & storms near November 15.

Mid-month storm system:

Second wave of Arctic air should arrive after that. Some minor snowfall is possible as or once the Arctic air arrives.

Second round of cold arriving mid-month:

We should bounce back temperature-wise after Thanksgiving.  Another round of cold, cold air should arrive in the first 7 days of December.

This could be a substantial wave of cold air with a similar situation in early December of 2014 & 2017.
with early December snow or ice in the Deep South to Gulf Coast.  There is a nice analog match to this.

A large part of the country will see below normal temperatures, some significantly so.  This fits with the winter forecast in a low solar, El Nino Modoki, Alaska/northwest Canada ridging situation.

Note the very impressive temperature gradient setting up along the East Coast.  It would not surprise me to see that system along the Gulf Coast form into an early-season impressive Nor'Easter with heavy snowfall in the South all the way to the Northeast U.S.

It should keep us below normal temperature-wise right to as late as December 12 or so.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Overcast
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Hi: 80° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 74°
Kokomo
Broken Clouds
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Rensselaer
Clear
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
Scattered Clouds
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Monticello
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Logansport
Scattered Clouds
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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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