Overall.............through November 20, we have three brief warm surges with 50s to 60s. In-between these, bursts of Arctic air will try to blast in with some snow showers & flurries. There will be a lot of wind, with +30 mph gusts nearly daily.
So....................let the ride begin................
Breezy to windy election day is ahead with gusts up to 30 mph at times from the west-northwest to west.
It will be cooler than today with highs 42-50 overall for the viewing area after 30-35 in the morning for lows.
There will be more clouds in the north half than south overall.
That, after a couple isolated showers & sprinkles in the south this evening-tonight before clearing.
After a windy, warm Wednesday with highs 55-60 (with partly cloudy skies), we should see our high for the day Thursday early in the morning at 39-46.
Temperatures should then fall with strong northwest to north winds up to 35 mph & temperatures dropping to 30-35 by mid-afternoon, then 25-30 by evening.
It is a very strong, dynamic system, but real lack of moisture or CAPE preventing more widespread, heavier rainfall with storms.
Wind chills will drop from 17-23 mid-afternoon to 10-15 by evening.
Scattered showers should change to a period of snow showers. Grass may be dusted or whitened in some locations, mainly along & north of US 24.
We will monitor.
As Arctic high moves in during the night, winds will decrease, but lows may drop to 16-22 with some lingering stratus/stratocumulus in parts of the area, enhanced by the lake.
Friday looks cold & breezy with stratocumulus & sunshine (more sun southwest, more clouds north & northeast) with a few scattered flurries & snow showers (mainly lake effect & in the northern to northeastern half of the viewing area).
Highs should only reach 31-37 with wind chills (even at the warmest time of day) running 22-31.
Then, big warm-up arrives late next weekend on strong southwest winds up to 40 mph.
Very strong, dynamic system will pass Sunday with Arctic front. Some showers are possible & some isolated thunder may occur as low-topped line with big temperature & pressure gradient moves through.
Temperature will drop from highs of 55-60 to 31-35 very quickly. 20- to 25-degree temperature drop may occur with passage of the front.
It may literally go from southwest wind & warmth to snow showers in 1 to 1.5 hours.
Lows of 18-24 are likely Sunday night, followed by a few snow showers & flurries Monday (with windy conditions) & highs just 28-33.
Another big warm surge is likely right around mid-month. 50s & 60s are possible.
Rain & some storms are possible. We will wait & see how much CAPE & moisture can recover from the Arctic blasts.
Thoughts are that more will recover in this round than all of the other warm periods. So, rainfall coverage & intensity looks higher.
Best severe risk is Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana & Mississippi. Accumulating snowfall is possible Kansas to Wisconsin.
Arctic air is opened again after that storm system.
Check out the degree of Arctic air behind that front!
I would not be surprised to see the 0 line make it to Kansas & Nebraska to Iowa over snow pack. -20 is possible in parts of the Dakotas.
Shot of bitterly cold air is possible in late November with a freeze to north-central Florida.
Our highs may only run 18-22 on a day or two after a minor 1" or less snow.
We should see a radical change as we move out of November & into December.
It looks mild!
Note the recovery process as we transition to warmth.
However, also note the extreme, bitterly cold air (for the time of year) in Canada & far northern U.S.
Again, looks exactly like last winter.
And then the warm overspreads the central & eastern U.S.
Two things are unclear, however.
One: Whether just a mild, strong, zonal Pacific flow will dominate (with below normal precipitation here) with warmth widespread over the entire Lower 48 with a cut-off cold upper low in the Southwest U.S. to Mexico (with rain & snow)...................OR.....................
Two: The West has a deep, cold trough & the central & East have a warm upper ridge with wet & warm weather here.
Either way we look mild. Whether we are wetter or drier is the question.
However, things should change drastically as we approach or exit Christmas with Arctic air flooding the area.
Analog suggests first substantial winter weather event or storm around this time.
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- November 4, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update