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November 4, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain & snow ahead.....here is the new data in!

Posted: Nov 4, 2019 9:29 PM
Updated: Nov 4, 2019 11:02 PM

Today was mild with highs in the 50s to near 60 breezy to windy conditions, making more leaves tumble down.

Tonight will turn colder & back to 30-35 as cold front slides through after lows only in the 40s last night.

After 42-50 tomorrow with sunshine & some clouds (with westerly winds at 15-30 mph), we should drop to 28-34 tomorrow night.

After any lingering high to mid clouds exit early Tuesday, some stratocumulus & cumulus will be around with the greatest coverage in the north.

I did go with a partly cloudy wording for Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions from the south to southwest at 15-33 mph.

Some data is trending more toward mostly sunny skies, which would drive our temperature even higher, but I think cumulus/stratocumulus will develop right now.  Should keep us at 55-60. 

As always, we will monitor

Arctic front is speeding up for Thursday.  Looks like it may reach US 24 by 6 a.m. Thursday morning.

Once it passes any showers will change to a period of some snow showers.

3-9 a.m. temperatures over the area should run 38-46, then begin to fall behind front quickly to 30-33.

So a period of some snow showers are possible right into the afternoon before tapering.

Winds look gusty from the north to north-northeast at 20-35 mph.

Temperatures should run in the 27-32 range for the afternoon with wind chills 13-20.

It is not completely out of the question that a few areas have the grass dusted or whitened.  Best chance of having the grass whitened is along & north of US 24.

Highs Friday should only run 31-36 (after 18-24 in the morning) with sunshine & clouds with a band of some flurries courtesy of Lake Michigan before 11 a.m.  Winds look northwest at 10-15 mph, turning to the east & decreasing to 4-7 mph after 1 p.m.

It should cloud up completely Friday night, which will keep temperatures up.  Also, wind will turn to the southeast, then south at 5-10 mph as warm front lifts northward.  We may drop to 21-26 initially, then rise to 25-30.

We should see sunshine with some clouds Saturday with a southwest wind at 15-25 mph.

Highs of 43-50 are likely.

Sunday is a day of sharp change.  After 40s & 50s early (it will not get as warm if the front arrives earlier), we look to completely tank in the afternoon with gusty northwest winds to 40 mph.

Some scattered showers & thunder initially should go to snow showers.

A dusting or whitening of the grass is possible. 

We will monitor.

Monday, Veteran's Day, look quite cold for the time of year with highs only 27-31.

Very strong Arctic high will be centered in the Dakotas with strong north winds in the area, dropping wind chills 13-18.

A narrow corridor of lake effect snow showers & flurries in the area is likely with partly cloudy skies (overall) for the area.

Strong Arctic high should move nearly overhead Tuesday night.

Any lake effect snow flurries Tuesday should end with highs only 29-34

Tuesday night lows may drop to 11-15 after 13-18 Monday night.

Low teens will make it all the way down to east-central Tennessee with 20s to the Gulf Coast.

20s will likely make it to Gainesville, Florida with 30s to Orlando & 40 to Lake Okeechobee.  A "cold" upper 40s night will be felt in Miami.

Multiple record daily lows will likely fall.

November 13

Then, things RAPIDLY change. 

First, note how we (& much of the East) are near/record cold Monday-Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Denver may hit 70 Wednesday (Miami may only make it to 67) with the mid 60s to Wyoming & 70s in northwestern Texas.

We may see a sudden 50s surge, then a sudden, very quick burst of Arctic air for a day.  Then.......................we warm up again!

A big plume of warmth should flood northward with rainfall near mid-mouth.

These are night-time temperatures below in the very mild 55-60 range.

Note the very strong cold front, however.

Deepening surface low should pivot northward along the Mississippi River with widespread rainfall & some storms.

Right now, looks like severe risk would tend to occur eastern Texas & Oklahoma to Arkansas, Louisiana & Mississippi.  Some recycling of the stable air from Arctic air remnants may get ingested & cut severe risk eastward (& better dynamics & shear northward, but good forcing from Arctic front).

Wind-driven accumulating snowfall should occur Kansas to Wisconsin.

Then cold........

Temperatures should warm as we get into very late November & move into early December.

Cold West & warm East is the set-up in early December.

It looks wetter than normal.

There has been some question on how dry or wet it will be, but there is more evidence for wetter than normal than drier than normal or typical precipitation right now.

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