I have two Friday Feedback responses day. One for last week & one for this week. Both are from Travis Jenkins.
Hello Chad, hope you are doing good this week. Do you see ice on ponds being thick this winter. Plan on ice fishing
Thank you Travis! I do think it will get cold enough for ice fishing this winter. I think you will be able to by mid-January. All of our analog years (years like this one) saw ice get thick enough for ice fishing (most recent good analogs are 2002-03, 2014-15).
He also had a question as to why storms often see "energy transfer" from a system here to a developing Nor'Easter on the East Coast. Throwing all the math & mumbo jumbo out, here are the hows & whys of this:
This occurs because the Gulf Stream off the East Coast (which gives the immediate Northeast Coast a milder, maritime climate................for example, palmettos naturally occur as far north as islands off the coast of Virginia, the northernmost range of Spanish Moss creeps northward to far southeast Virginia) becomes a nursery bed for big storm formation when Arctic air races to the coast.
The big geopotential height gradient between the Arctic air & the very mild air over warm that Gulf Stream causes a very sudden increase in vorticity. This same phenomenon occurs on the lee side of the Rockies, which gives us "Colorado lows". The rapid change in vorticity from high, high terrain of the Rockies to the Plains of eastern Colorado spins up surface lows.
Same thing can happen when an Arctic airmass makes it to south Texas & the Gulf is a steam bath of warmth. Lows blow up there & can become Nor'Easters or "Inside Runners" that move from Louisiana to Ohio & bring us our heaviest snows & biggest blizzards.
These areas of frequent mid-latitude cyclone formation are called "anchors".
This anchor on the East Coast often becomes the main center of lift as storms spin up, even with another storm in the Ohio Valley. In many instances with this anchor, the spin is already there in our area & that is all it takes to provide a little extra to a developing storm in this anchor zone on the East Coast.
When you rapidly increase the lift in one are, you will tend to get sinking air in the other. This occurs with this so-called "transfer". With much better lift & lowering pressures in this anchor zone along the East Coast, we see our air sink & see convergence begin to occur aloft, "zapping" the storm system we have here in our area.
This occurs when the bitter Arctic air is right up into the coastal waters coast, not just on the western slopes of the Appalachians, which sometimes occurs. That is when this rapid uptick in spin occurs over a narrow area.
There is also a lot of moisture in the Gulf Stream zone, so you often get t'storms as this occurs, further lowering the air pressure & causing the Nor'Easter to form.
This type of mid-latitude cyclone formation is referred to as "Miller Type B".