November 29, 12:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update.

Posted: Nov 29, 2018 12:05 PM
Updated: Nov 29, 2018 12:25 PM

A spotty wintry mix showers lastnight to early this morning, check out the random hole of sunshine over our area!  This has turned this midday surprisingly nice!  Also note in that visible satellite image the snow cover in north-central Illinois where you can see the braiding of streams amidst the white snow pack.

Clouds should return in the p.m.  A few spotty cold rain showers are still possible later today-tonight.

Highs should reach 38-45.

Widespread, driving rain (with some embedded t'storms possible) on gusty southeast winds Saturday morning to midday will give way to sun/cumulus towers & a few scattered showers/t'showers in the mid- to late afternoon as winds go to the southwest.  Wind gusts of 40-45 mph are possible at times during the day.  Some area may see a solid 1" of rainfall in the morning alone, so watch for ponding & rises in creeks & streams. 

Temperatures will be in the 40s during the morning, but skyrocket to 57-64 by late afternoon with some sunshine.  I went for 12 hours of spring at Lafayette with 62.

Why such a sudden, brief warm-up?  Well, even cold Novembers & Decembers see brief warm-ups, usually for only a day though.  This is due to very deep trough slamming southern California with flooding rainfall, creating this buckle in the upper jet that will translate to the quick burst of warming.

I also think a lot of it has to do with the storm strengthening quickly, but occluding quickly.  It strengthens, pulling warm air north, but as it occludes (begins the weakening phase), it jogs back to the northwest (as they usually do with occlusion), bathing us in this warm surge.

Notice some embedded t'storms with the heavy morning-midday rain.  Then a few showers & t'showers will build with the cumulus/sun in the mid to late afternoon & that line of some severe t'storms around St. Louis.

So, system brings alot of severe weather southwest of here Friday.

It brings more severe weather south of here Saturday.

The viewing area is under Marginal Risk (isolated severe storm or two possible) for severe weather to account for any t'showers bubbling up in the afternoon-evening & the line of t'storms racing northeastward out of the St. Louis area.

1-2" of rainfall is likely Saturday-Sunday, resulting in lowland flooding next week. 
It will also result in ponding of low areas in lawns & fields in the short-term of the event.

Some scattered showers will continue into Sunday with gusty southwest to west winds & high 40s to 50s initially, then falling into the 30s & 40s.

Much colder weather with snow is possible next week.  Details are blurry, but pattern support greater potential of snowfall in our area through next week & right up to Christmas.

West Lafayette
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Rensselaer
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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