November 28, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update: Active!

Active pattern with a couple big temperatures oscillations in an otherwise cold pattern..........

Posted: Nov 28, 2018 8:04 PM
Updated: Nov 28, 2018 9:44 PM

It was another couple of days with some snow!  Looks like we may end up with the greatest number of days with snowflakes in November since 1972 at West Lafayette, just greater than 1977 by a couple of days.

Totals are from Monday & yesterdaY in the two graphics.

It was the coldest morning so far this season in the southwestern half of the viewing area this morning! 

Highs today were impressively low by November standards.  Normal high is around 45 & normal low 27.

Today was the coldest November 28 since 1996.

Some scattered light snow, sleet & freezing rain showers are possible 11 p.m. & onward right to tomorrow morning.

A few scattered light cold rain showers are possible midday to afternoon.  Coverage will run 45%.

Watch for a few local slick spots, even with only a a thin film/coating or trace of precipitation.  It doesn't talk much to make at least a few slick spots. 

Temperatures will run 27-32 with the precip tonight-morning, followed by afternoon highs of 35-40.

Any scattered showers will taper Thursday night to early Friday morning.  Coverage will average 40%.

Saturday is interesting.  System continues to track farther to the northwest over Iowa to Wisconsin.  This puts us into more of the warmer sector.

So...........

1.  Steady, driving rainfall of up to 1" is possible Saturday morning with southeast wind gusts up to 45 mph at times.  Isolated thunder is possible.  Temperatures will run in the 40s.  A Wind Advisory will likely be issued for the viewing area from the National Weather Service.

2.  Rain should exit mid to late morning.  Skies should clear & become spring-like & cumulus-filled with a few spokes of scattered showers & even t'showers in the afternoon to evening. 

Some of these low-topped lines/bands of showers/t'showers pivoting in may produce a few isolated +50 mph gusts given some bits of CAPE bubbling up from the sunshine.  Otherwise, gradient southwest winds will be strong with gusts to 45 mph at times. 

It looks like highs could reach 58-65!  I have increased Greater Lafayette's high to 62!

3.  Low clouds & scattered showers should pivot back in Saturday night with gusty west winds to 38 mph & lows in the 40s.

4.  Some scattered showers are likely Sunday with gusty northwest winds to 34 mph.  With mostly cloudy skies, highs should run in the 40s to 50 early, then fall into the 30s & 40s in the afternoon-evening.

5.  Any rainfall should change to & end as snow showers Sunday night-Monday morning with gusty northwest winds.

6.  A total of 0.75"-1.50" of rainfall is possible, which will lead to additional lowland flooding next week.

Arctic air should come in & dominate next week with several days of highs only in the 20s.

Snow is possible Tuesday, snow showers Wednesday & snow possible next Saturday.

With big ridge of warmth developing in the northeast Pacific & into the northwest U.S., little disturbances will drop with the Arctic air into Colorado & Oklahoma, then re-organize & "round the bend" toward our area.  This will increase our odds of getting snowfall.

The flaccidity of the Polar Vortex is seen as a stratospheric warming episode occurs.  This all points to odds of cold, cold weather in December before the pattern changes for a bit after Christmas.

We will still monitor, but the probability of a White Christmas still looks above normal!

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