November 27, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest weather forecast update.

Posted: Nov 27, 2018 1:37 PM
Updated: Nov 27, 2018 2:35 PM

After flurries & some snow showers this morning, a weak shortwave is moving in. 

This will develop additional snow showers that will last well into the evening hours.  After a light dandruff dusting this morning, this wave may bring a fluffy 0.5-0.7" of accumulation in places & visibility may drop to 0.75 mile at times. 

Although the snow will be very fluffy & dry, in places that see a bit more accumulation, it may coat roadways & cars may pack it in on roadways, creating a veneer of ice.  Watch for a few slick spots.

Temperatures with be stready in the 20s with that cold west wind.

Flakes should end, followed by clearing later tonight.  However, high & mid clouds will increase tomorrow. After 13-18 tonight, highs tomorrow should run near 30.

West-southwest to southwest winds tonight-tomorrow at 6-12 mph will drop wind chills to near 0 by tomorrow morning & keep it in the teens to 20s tomorrow afternoon.

After skies become overcast Wednesday night, temperatures will rise from initial lows of 23-26 to 28-31 by Thursday morning.

Scattered sleet & freezing rain showers will move in after 6:30 a.m. & then gradually change to just a scattering of cold rain showers for a good chunk of the area.  Note how it is still freezing rain showers in the far north even in the late afternoon as temperatures struggle around 32 there, however.  The areas of rain should be up to 34-38 by that point.

A trace of sleet & a trace to 0.03" of freezing rain are possible.  Total liquid should reach 0.10" or less in the area.

Some cold rain showers are possible Thursday night to Friday morning.  They may end as a few flakes Friday morning.  This will be followed by a mostly cloudy, but milder Friday afternoon with highs 40-45 after 33-36 in the morning.

Powerhouse storm with strong winds & lots of rainfall will pass Saturday-Sunday.

On Saturday, it looks like widespread rain & howling east to southeast winds at 25-40 mph.  It may begin as snow, sleet & freezing rain in the far north before changing to rain.

The steady rains will become more showery Saturday night-Sunday before ending as some snow showers Sunday night-early Monday morning.  Strong winds should continue into Saturday night before relaxing slightly Sunday-Monday.

Heavy snowfall with near blizzard conditions is possible over Iowa to far northern Illinois (again).  Meanwhile, severe weather is possible Arkansas & Tennessee to the Gulf Coast.

Any slight change in track, whether it be southward to northward, would mean the difference between snow event here or 58-62 & even a few t'storms here.

I am continuing to take the slightly milder road here with highs 40s to 50s with rain Saturday.

With a milder track, 0.75-1.25" of weekend rainfall may lead to some river flooding next week, even with cold arriving.  The Wabash is already high & may reach an even higher crest with such rainfall later next week.

My analogs have continued to show high potential of a snowfall event(s) next week.  Models have not warmed up to that notion very well until now.

Cold air laid down behind our powerhouse weekend storm may keep the next system's track far enough south for all snow here.  Arctic air should be laid down behind it with the high all the way from Alberta to Louisiana.  Widespread below to well-below normal temperatures is expected over all areas east of the Rockies.

After the storm, a wave of snow showers with a shortwave is even possible Wednesday.

A lot of wind looks to accompany the snow Tuesday & Wednesday.

This bears close watching.

The coldest weather is centered around December 10 or so.  Lows below zero are possible.

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Dry, windy, very warm weather, followed by scattered rain & much cooler conditions.
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