Nuts & bolts of forecast.
A. A powerhouse storm will pass this evening-Wednesday.
Showers increasing today (with risk of isolated thunder) & peak in coverage with some storms tonight. Some scattered rain/snow showers possible for a while tomorrow. Rainfall totals around 0.60-1" expected.
There is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather viewing area-wide for tonight-early Wednesday morning. This means isolated severe storms are possible. Threat is wind & isolated brief, weak tornado. Squall line should pass in the 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. time frame. Lack of CAPE precludes higher severe risk probabilities.
Upgrade to High Wind Warning is likely soon for the entire viewing area. Two waves of high winds should pass. One should be preceding the squall line in the 11 p.m.-3 a.m. time frame with gusts to 50 mph from the south. Winds may actually diminish to gusts of 25-30 mph just after the squall line for a bit as they turn to the southwest. Then, bigger wind event passes Wednesday morning-afternoon. Sustained west winds of 30-45 mph are likely with gusts 50-60 mph. A few isolated gusts of +60 mph are likely. Some power outages, tree damage & minor damage to some home roof shingles are likely.
It should remain quite windy through Wednesday night, but gusts will overall decrease. They should drop to 30 mph after 3 a.m. Wednesday night-early Thursday morning. Gusts should drop to 25 mph by 8 a.m. Thursday morning.
After 50s this afternoon, temperatures should reach 58-62 tonight after midnight, followed by fall to 37-42 tomorrow.
B. Another powerhouse storm is possible Friday-Sunday after a tranquil, but gray Thanksgiving of highs near 40 to the 40s as winds turn to the east-southeast & decrease to 5-8 mph.
Rain will move in Friday afternoon & last through Friday night & into Saturday. It should taper Saturday afternoon, followed by potential weakening squall line of storms Saturday evening. A mix of rain & snow showers is then likely Sunday. A total of 0.80-1.60" of rainfall is possible.
There is the risk of isolated severe weather with potential squall line that pivots through Saturday evening. Main threat would be wind.
Gusts of 50 mph are possible with this storm in two waves. One would be preceding the squall line Saturday late afternoon-evening with howling southerly winds. Other wave would be Sunday from the west to northwest.
After 50s in the afternoon, a rise to 57-62 is possible preceding the squall line Saturday evening. Temperatures should then drop into the 36-41 range & remain there into Sunday.