The 1.71" of rain in the past 4 days at our WLFI ob site has been the most in such a period since January 8-11, 2020..........nearly 11 months! 3.07" fell in that 4-day period.
Rainfall totals of the past week vary from 0.65-3.4" per Doppler estimates & gauges in the area from observers & automatic equipment verify these numbers.
On this mostly cloudy to cloudy Thanksgiving, highs were 45-51 today. Lows as of 9:45 p.m. for the day are 37-46.
Watch the southern storm system clipper merge. The colder air follows the clipper & watch the snow blossom east & southeast of our area Monday as our winds really pick up to gusts 30-50 mph from the north to north-northwest with temperatures in the 30s.
Heavy snowfall & strong winds with big impacts will occur Monday-Monday night Ohio to eastern & central Kentucky, West Virginia to even the higher terrain of eastern Tennessee, northeast Georgia & western North Carolina.
We will likely see some very minor accumulation in the viewing area of 1" or less Monday-Monday night from system snow showers & lake effect snow showers. A few isolated 1-2" amounts are possible.
4-10" may fall in Ohio. +12" may fall in the higher elevations of eastern Tennessee to West Virginia & far western north Carolina with a bit less in the valleys.
We will continue to monitor.
Still looks like a situation of 32 in Ohio to eastern Tennessee with snow & 60s with severe weather risk in New England.
There will also be severe weather risk from southern Alabama through the Carolinas to northern Florida.
From southern Mississippi to northwestern Florida, there continues to be the risk of even a strong, longer track tornado or two Sunday evening through Sunday night to Monday morning. This is cause a substantial risk as it will occur in the darkness hours.
Interesting temperature anomaly pattern is setting up. Next week, the eastern & southeastern U.S. average cooler than normal (especially Southeast).
Beyond that to December 10, trend is to build impressive warmth from the Plains southeastward to our area as very strong upper ridge of the time of year expands. Record warmth is possible in the Northern Plains.
The ridge will be so warm & strong that any system will tend to ride its underbelly into the Southeast & deepen, keeping it cooler & wet there.
We look drier than normal to December 10 after this little wet period this week with increasing warmth. Monday-Wednesday will likely be the only slightly-below normal days for a long time.
Warmth builds mid to late December. Temperatures should then average above to well-above normal from our area to the Northern Plains. No White Christmas is expected. Instead, there may be some showers & storms with severe weather in the Southeast U.S. to as far north as southwestern & southern Indiana around Christmas.
A brief cool snap with normal temperatures may follow just after Christmas, followed by significant warmth as we end December & move into the first several days of January.
Only New England may see a substantial cold snap with potential round of heavy snow.
Precipitation-wise, after any very minor snowfall Monday-Monday night, there is no real snow signal (unless this changes in upcoming data) until after January 5.
Precipitation looks below normal for the first half to 2/3 of December, then goes above normal.
This above normal pattern increases even more in January.
Best potential of a bigger snow for sledding & bigger-time plowing would be after January 10. Then, a couple snows in succession may occur, per analog analysis.