November 26, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update: A New Look at the Outlook Now-Early January

Here is the latest outlook to early January.

Posted: Nov 26, 2018 9:18 PM
Updated: Nov 26, 2018 9:54 PM

So, some flurries & a few ilight snow showers are possible to Tuesday morning, followed with periodic breaks in the low clouds.  It does appear that a minor, weak shortwave may bring a period of some flurries or a few light snow showers Tuesday evening-early night.  Any snow-morning or evening/night-may only bring "dandruff" to your car & rooftop.

I went for a mix of clouds & sun with completely gray skies at times interspersed with times of brilliant sunshine for Tuesday.  It still looks like the coldest November 27 afternoon since 1977 with highs 24-27. 

A widespread, consistent clearing trend will probably not occur until after 9 p.m. Tuesday evening.

This, after lows Tuesday morning of 16-21.

It will be breezy with west winds at 13-24 mph keeping winds chills at 3-9 in the morning, followed by 11-17 in the afternoon.

There will continue to be a breeze into Tuesday night from the west, then the southwest.  So, temperatures will tend to level off, despite clear skies, to 13-18.  Wind chills will run as low as 0.

As for Wednesday, the west-southwest wind will propel us to 29-32.  There won't be a huge rise as the wind will be blowing off some Missouri snow pack & the fact that this dense Arctic air will be difficult to erode, even this early in "winter" (we technically are not quite in winter yet). 

It looks like a lot of sunshine, but high & mid clouds will increase late in the day.  It looks like another breezy one too with winds at 14-25 mph keeping wind chills in the teens for much of the day.

We will become overcast Wednesday night with temperatures falling to 23-27, then rising to 27-32.

It does look like a period of light freezing rain & sleet showers Thursday morning before changing to some scattered cold rain showers Thursday afternoon.  This may end as a few snow showers Friday morning.

Trace amounts of freezing rain & sleet are possible Thursday morning, which may lead to a couple slick spots.  Thursday's highs should reach 36-40 with southeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Friday looks mostly dry & mostly cloudy with a light east to northeast wind, but it will be warmer with highs 40-45.

Widespread precipitation will overspread the area Saturday morning-Saturday midday. 

It may fall as snow, sleet & freezing rain in our northern & northeastern counties north of the warm front in the morning to early afternoon hours.  Cold air is going to try to bleed in surface high over Ontario & Quebec nudging southwestward.

The warmer air should overcome it & everyone in the viewing should go to all rain by mid to late afternoon.  However, significant snowfall accumulations will not be that far away.

Meanwhile, the temperature may reach 60 in southern Indiana with some t'storms. 

It looks like a gusty, nasty day with the mix & then cold rain.  Highs should run near 39 in the north to 50 in the far south with 47 in the Lafayette area.

Northeast to east to east-southeast winds will run 20-35 mph, though these winds will diminish for a bit Saturday evening as the center of the surface low passes nearly overhead.  If you are prone to aches & pains from low pressure, just like Sunday night, it may be an uncomfortable evening for you.

Any lingering rain Sunday morning may end as some light snow showers with temperatures 33-36.

It looks like another powerhouse storm Monday-Wednesday with multiple waves of rainfall.  It should end as some snow Wednesday morning.

Winds will be strong with this system, largely on the backside of it.  With some snow showers & flurries lingering into Wednesday, northwest winds could gust to 45 mph.  Arctic air should flood in with highs by Thursday in the 20s.

Arctic high should dominate right to December 10.

My thoughts, based on analog data, are on a storm system with snow/ice near December 12 & then brutally cold weather with near/record cold possible.  Analog analysis points to it.  Let's watch & see if the models catch up to it.  I used the analog method to do the winter forecast & ignored the models.  Many were all warm for the fall & winter & then they turned colder & colder as we got much closer, so we shall see.

I still think there is a greater than normal potential of a White Christmas, followed by moderating temperatures after Christmas.  It should turn warmer with rain at times right up to New Years before Arctic air follows in early January with opportunities with snowfall.

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