November 25, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Active forecast with first storm arriving tomorrow-tomorrow night.

Posted: Nov 25, 2019 1:21 PM
Updated: Nov 25, 2019 7:31 PM

High Wind Watch is up for much of the viewing area late Tuesday overnight/pre-dawnWednesday morning-Wednesday late afternoon (upgraded to entire viewing area as of 4:50 p.m.).

Meanwhile, Winter Storm Warnings are up northwest of our area.

Tomorrow to tomorrow night, there will be Severe T'Storm & Tornado Watches lined up from Illinois to Texas.

We may see some upgrades to Blizzard Warnings west & northwest of our area.

It is an impressive storm!  Surface pressure may tank to 982 mb over far southwest Wisconsin.

It will cloud up tonight with not too much wind (southeast to south-southeast 5-10 mph).  However, winds in the far northwest will turning to the northeast as cold front briefly slips southward into that area.

So, northwest will see lows 31-35, while rest of the area is closer to 40.

Went for 31-42 for lows area-wide.

Some showers will gradually increase at times tomorrow.  There risk of an isolated rumble of thunder late.

Winds will be on the increase with a turn of northeast/southeast to southeast & south-southeast (gusts to 35 mph by evening).

Temperatures should reach 52-56 by evening.

Temperatures should rise to 57-62 overnight Tuesday with numerous showers & a few storms possible.

A squall line with severe weather risk will race eastward & pass through our area in weakening form in generally the 1 a.m. to 4 a.m. time frame.

There is the risk of a couple isolated severe storms here with wind being the main threat (isolated +60 mph t'storm gusts).

Winds will increase overall to gusts 40-50 mph getting into the early overnight.

A total of 0.60-1.20" of rainfall is possible.

Squall line at 11 p.m. tomorrow night:

High wind event is likely late Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday morning to late Wednesday afternoon with power outages & tree damage expected.  Some local home shingle roof damage is possible.

Peak winds will be sustained at 30-45 mph with gusts 50-60 mph.  Some localized gusts of +60 mph are likely from the southwest to west-southwest.

Dry slot with clearing (with the high winds) will pass early Wednesday morning, followed by low clouds with the high winds & a few rain/snow showers.

Temperatures will quickly tank into the 36-41 range by midday & remain pretty steady in the afternoon.

Wind will diminish Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving morning may still be a bit breezy from a northwest direction.  Just as quickly as any low clouds break & pull away, high & mid clouds will rapidly increase & thicken from the southwest ahead of the next powerhouse storm.  Wind will also turn calm, then go to the east-southeast at 5 mph.

It will be a mostly cloudy to cloudy day with highs in the 40s.

Rain should increase with time Friday.  At this point, it looks like a dry start, but we will monitor for changes.

Rain Friday night should increase to rain & high winds Saturday with potential weakening squall line of storms Saturday night as temperatures reach 57-62.

After dry slot Sunday morning, temperatures should fall into the 38-44 range with some scattered rain/snow.

Southwest to west, then northwest winds may gust +50 mph Saturday night-Sunday.

A total of 0.80-1.60" rainfall is possible.

A fast-moving, very strong clipper may pivot through Tuesday evening-Tuesday night of next week with some rain/snow showers.

A period of high winds with gusts to 50 mph are possible with it from the northwest.

This clipper may phase with a disturbance in the subtropical jet to our south & form a big coastal storm.

This Nor'Easter could bring heavy rain, snow & high winds from the inland Carolinas to Maine.

We look to have a quick, sharp bout of cold with highs in the 30s & lows in the teens.

A couple of storm systems with rain may pass December 5-11.

December 9 system may have +45 mph west to northwest wind gusts with it with a temperature surge back to the 50s, then sudden fall to the 30s.

Another round of +45 mph gusts are possible from the west around December 10-11 with temperature surge back to the 40s & 50s.

So, potential is there for two high wind events in three days.

Powerhouse storm is possible mid-December with high winds, rain, few storms & warmth.

The bottom then falls out on the temperature with snow showers & wind chills dropping below zero.

A 50-degree temperature drop in 12 hours is possible (58 to 8).

West split flow & phasing in the southern Plains with reservoir of cold coming south off & on will result in increased winter storm risk in latter half of December.

A couple of systems like this are possible.

They dive out of British Columbia & Washington State, become much more disorganized in the Rockies, then reach what we call a topographic anchor.

The quick elevation change between the Rockies & Plains result in the vorticity being lengthened & tightened in the troposphere.  This is like an ice skater pulling themselves inward.  The spin increases.  So, surface low re-develops in the Texas Panhandle.

This also happens as the Polar & Subtropical jets phase & the difference in temperature between the High Plains & Rockies & Lower Central Plains creates a strong nocturnal low-level jet.

This will result in abundant moisture & strong storm system development.

They tend to track Texas Panhandle, then southeast to northeastward.

Only issue to cut snowfall totals from one or two of these storms is the likelihood of what I like to call "snow piracy".

Our snow systems may re-develop on the East Coast into Nor'Easters, stealing the moisture & pulling the made source of lift away from our area.

This is very much like last winter when we saw multiple snow storms do this here.

Main reason is warm Southeast upper ridge creating very, very sharp baroclinic zone right along the coast (much bigger temperature change than normal between land & just off the coast).  Storms then follow that thermal gradient.

Sudden, random 50- to 60-degree temperature rise is possible for a day or two late month, followed by bitter, potentially near/record cold in early- to mid-January.

A couple "Polar Vortex" outbreaks are possible in January & then again in early February.  Analog suggests a sudden, major thaw with rain, ice jams, fog, high winds, isolated severe risk & 60- to 70-degree temperature rise. 

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