Temperatures are 47-55 over the viewing area with rainfall decreasing. Totals since lastnight vary from near 0.20 to as much as 1".
Some clearing is underway in southern Illinois to near St. Louis with the center of the surface & upper low vertically stacked just west-northwest of St. Louis.
Some of the clearing will move northeastward as the low pivots east-northeastward & a few showers & storms followed by a couple spokes arcs arc of showers & storms will pivot around the center this afternoon-evening.
Temperatures will warm to 56-62 over our area with south winds 15-30 mph.
There is a MARGINAL RISK of severe storms along & south of a Pine Village to Greater Lafayette to Rossville to south of Kokomo line where temperatures will be the warmest.
Isolated severe storm or two is possible in this zone (isolated severe gust, brief tornado spin-up.....with potential of isolated sub-severe hail).
Note the scattered showers & storms & a couple of spokes or arcs of showers & storms pivoting around the low, impacting the viewing area.
Thursday will feature a lot of clouds with highs 47-53 after 43-46 in the morning.
Friday looks partly cloudy with 51-57 after 30s in the morning.
Saturday looks partly cloudy & cooler at 45-53 behind a dry cold front that passes Friday night.
The bulk of the next system looks to pass southeast & east of our area, but it may still bring some showers later Sunday-Sunday night, changing to some snow flurries/showers Monday as temperatures fall from 50s Sunday to 30s Monday.
Winds will be strong Monday-Tuesday at 30-50 mph from the northwest potentially.
It is unclear whether we will get any sort of accumulation of snow right now. The bulk of it still looks to be east & southeast of our area, but we will monitor.
Highs will remain in the 30s Tuesday before rebounding to the 40s to 50 by mid to late next week.
Negative NAO & positive PNA & more neutral to Phase 5 MJO dominates this pattern, flexing its muscles outside of the La Nina to bring colder weather for a bit.
Warm phase MJO to 3-4 should return by December 10-11 with strong La Nina influence & positive NAO. This means lots of warmth mid-month through Christmas with wetter pattern with even t'storm risk & potential of a couple to few near/record warm days/nights.
The PNA is really the top influencer with its phase promoting below normal temperatures across the Deep South & Southeast U.S. & Northeast, while the western Corn Belt, Plains & across the Northern Rockies it will be warmer than normal.