First things first, the weather looks overall tranquil until Sunday.
Thanksgiving is mostly cloudy to cloudy with then clearing late & highs 47-53 after some fog & low overcast in the morning with 42-46. Winds will be west-southwest at 10-15 mph.
As for Friday, fog & low overcast will dominate Friday morning, but skies should turn partly cloudy in the afternoon-evening with highs 48-55 & west-southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Saturday looks mostly sunny to sunny after some fog & frosty conditions in the morning with 27-33. Highs will run 47-54.
So....................what's up with Sunday & Monday to Tuesday with the snowstorm rumor mill online?
I've got a few showers for Sunday with southwest to then northwest winds to 35 mph as cold front passes. 52-57 should fall through the 40s late in the day.
Right now, looks mostly cloudy with a few snow showers & flurries with howling winds late Sunday night-Monday. Gusts 40-50 mph are possible from the north to northwest & gusts Tuesday could reach 40 mph.
This, with highs only 33-38 means a real bit to the air!
So..............let's look at Sunday-Tuesday...........
No doubt, clipper will phase with southern storm & form a big storm in the South that moves northeastward toward Ontario. There will be severe weather (with a strong, long-track tornado or two in the South &/or Carolinas) with it from the Deep South to New England.
No doubt, it will have a lot of wind & will be a highly-impactful storm with an area of heavy snow on the back side.
However, there is a question on track & timing & just where the clipper & southern system phasing occurs.
Thoughts have been that the heavy snow would occur Ohio to the southern Appalachians with high winds, resulting in big impacts. Looked like it could be a situation Monday with 32 in Ohio, 33 in eastern Tennessee with snow & 68 in Boston with squall line of severe storms.
It bears some resemblance to the Appalachian Storm of 1950 currently.
For us, whether we see accumulating snow will be determined by exact track, where phasing occurs & how far back west once it occludes.
I'd like to keep status quo with 30s & high winds with gusts 40-50 mph Monday with some flurries & snow showers, but the heavier snow east of the area.
Let's keep a close eye on it to see if this changes. If it does look like we are headed in a snowier direction we will begin shifted the forecast in that direction, but I'm not there yet.
After this storm we do see one big warm up mid to late December with near/record warmth as MJO goes to strong warm phase, La Nina builds its big ridge in the Southeast, NAO & AO go positive & the PNA goes back negative.
Biggest driver for these highs in the 30s next week is not a big source region of bitterly cold air from Canada, but the positive PNA pattern that usually brings colder than normal weather from the Northeast to Southeast & we are near or a bit below normal. The Rockies, western Corn Belt & Plains are usually warmer than normal. It is also an overall drier pattern with the positive PNA, but wet & even snowy in the Southeast to Northeast.