November 24, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

The latest outlook regarding your travel forecast, the trends to & through Christmas & New Years & another looks at February to March...

Posted: Nov 24, 2021 2:55 PM
Updated: Nov 24, 2021 6:22 PM

Wind gusts reached as high as 46 mph today.  The +40 mph gusts occurred in the western part of the viewing area closer to the approaching storm system.  Also, pockets of better sun there, at times, have mixed down stronger gusts.  Highs reached 52-57 over the viewing area.

Round of light rain passes tonight-tomorrow AM, followed by some scattered rain/snow & snow showers.

0.25-0.50" rainfall is expected.

Any accumulation of snow would be very light & on grassy & elevated surface, largely over our northeastern counties (due to system & lake effect).

Friday features increasing clouds.

After mostly cloudy skies & a few isolated sleet & snow showers Friday night (no accumulation), the day should be partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy late.

Quick-moving clipper passes Saturday night with some scattered rain & snow showers.  It is possible that brief, light accumulations occur on elevated surfaces in our far northern & northeastern counties (northern Jasper to Pulaski to Fulton & far northern Miami).

All data continues to point to much warmer, spring-like, wet pattern in early December.  All teleconnections point to warm here.  With them all on the in their warm mode, this could be significant near record warmth in early December.

Big warmth December 1-8 is likely with temperatures well-above normal.

Preview of the warmer weather is in 7-day below.

It will be a bit wetter than normal, but main from one main storm system that will bring rain & even some storms near December 8.

1-2" of rainfall could occur with that storm system.

Note the Sudden Stratospheric Warming on our side of the North Pole in the first days of December.  We have already seen some warming already recently in a periodic fashion.  This all signals a weakening of the Polar Vortex & a great discharge of much, much colder weather ahead.

It still looks like the best potential of a White Christmas since 2014.

It seems that the coldest weather will tend to occur late December to early January with many nights below 0.  We could get in -20 in some areas, though the colder trend will arrive after December 8.

So, in this transition from warmer to colder phases............ 

In that transition between this very warm & much colder phase, a strong storm system should pass in the first week of December with much colder weather to follow.

Rain, some storms followed by shot of wind-driven snow is likely with temperatures falling from 60s to 20s pretty quickly.

Strong gradient winds with gusts to 50 mph from the northwest are possible with & behind the cold front.

Analog data shows a strong correlation between cool-season severe weather & tornadoes in the South to Lower Ohio Valley & sudden, rapid shifts from Phase 6 to Phase 7 of the MJO (especially when all other teleconnections shift at a similar time, as well).

This could signal tornado risk in the Lower Mississippi Valley & Deep South & some severe risk to as far north as Indiana.  Could it reach our area?  That remains to be seen.  Some severe weather risk could given the degree of the warm, the speed of the jet winds at all levels & the potential of some buoyancy (or CAPE) to make it up into the area.

After all the cold, snow & icy mix, a major thaw with flooding risk, storms, rain & lots of wind, is expected with brief stint at near/record warmth could occur in late January.

Much colder, snowier regime should follow.

It appears a burst of spring will occur early, like last year.  This could be very late February or early March.  Overall spring will arrive earlier than normal this year, it appears.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 24°
Kokomo
Clear
33° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 22°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 24°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 24°
Williamsport
Cloudy
35° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 26°
Crawfordsville
Mostly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 20°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 20°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 25°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 25°
Logansport
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 21°
More active weather headed our way...
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CountyCasesDeaths
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Lake724831254
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Tippecanoe30808276
Johnson27696467
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Howard16770314
Delaware16761303
Monroe16628220
Kosciusko14293167
Hancock13113186
Bartholomew12983190
Warrick12210190
Wayne12090269
Floyd12011226
Grant11998245
Morgan10409192
Boone9869124
Noble9316122
Henry9177169
Marshall9152147
Dearborn8970100
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Lawrence8057185
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Gibson7102118
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Knox6915116
Steuben669089
Whitley659660
Miami6595113
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Ripley557294
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White478469
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Clay464662
Decatur4611110
Fayette452496
Jennings452067
LaGrange427491
Posey410044
Randolph3944107
Washington390956
Fountain375964
Fulton364874
Spencer362247
Starke355574
Owen353577
Sullivan348555
Orange331372
Jay331050
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Carroll296239
Franklin292744
Perry290553
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Pike248644
Blackford222144
Pulaski210359
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Martin152120
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Warren135816
Union122616
Ohio92413
Unassigned0595

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