November 24, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Marginal Risk of severe storms Wednesday.

Posted: Nov 24, 2020 12:10 PM
Updated: Nov 24, 2020 12:58 PM

Drier, but mostly cloudy to cloudy weather will follow today with late evening highs of 44-51 over the area & a south-southeast wind.

Rain overspreads the area tonight with even potential of an isolated t'storm.  Rain lasts into Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, severe weather will occur Kansas to Texas to Missouri to Arkansas.

Rain tapers tomorrow & sun appears.  This, combined with strong low & mid-level wind fields, some cold air aloft & sun equates to risk of a couple severe storms as an arc or two of showers & t'storms pivot around the low pivoting though Illinois toward our area.

Highs of 56-63 are likely.

SPC has MARGINAL RISK of severe weather along & south of a Boswell to Battle Ground to near Kokomo line.

From the rainfall this morning & what will occur tonight & tomorrow, 1-2" of rainfall is likely area-wide.

Thanksgiving looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with a west breeze & highs 46-53 (52 Greater Lafayette).

Friday looks partly cloudy with highs in the 50s, followed by 45-53 Saturday with partly cloudy skies.

Southern storm system should merge with clipper & blow up into major storm over New England.  Widespread non-t'storm winds are expected at 40-70 mph with potential "bomb".  Accumulating snowfall is possible West Virginia, Pennsylvania & Ohio to Ontario.  Even the Appalachians to northeast Georgia may see some snowfall. 

It could literally be a situation on December 1 where it is 68 in Boston with a Tornado Watch & 33 with snow at Asheville, North Carolina with a Winter Storm Warning & we have a 37 Greater Lafayette high. 

It may be 60 with a High Wind Warning & MARGINAL RISK for severe weather in northern Maine & 32 in Ohio with winter weather alerts with snow & High Wind Warnings & Wind Advisories.

Severe weather with some tornadoes is likely Texas to Florida & the Carolinas & then over eastern New England.  A couple strong, long-track tornadoes are possible in the South.  Looks like potential squall l ine with widespread damaging winds New York to Maine with warm temperatures.

Here, we may see a few showers late Sunday (with 40s to 50s), then some sprinkles/flurries then a few flurries Monday-Monday night.  A few snow showers are possible over our northeastern counties.

Winds may gust 35-50 mph Monday with lots of clouds & highs 35-41 (38 Greater Lafayette)

After 35-41 Tuesday after lows in the 20s, highs should reach 40s to 50 by Thursday of next week with dry weather.

Lots of mild weather with near/record warmth should return mid December through Christmas.  There may be t'storms this year around Christmas rather than snow.  Some data suggests a couple pretty big severe weather outbreaks over the Southeast & East U.S. near Christmas & even some severe weather risk here.

So, count on some cooler snaps (though nothing major) in the first 11 days of December, then big warmth.

The MJO will become neutral for the first 11 days of the month before going to the strong warm phase again.  The driving factor for some cooler weather would then be that the NAO is going slightly negative & the PNA is going positive. 

The NAO promotes some cooler weather in our area & southeastward & the positive PNA promotes cooler weather in the Southeast U.S (more just normal temperatures here) & much warmer weather in the Northern Plains to Northwest half of the U.S.

Much of this has to do with Cyclone Nivar that will slam Indian then merge with storm over China & bring massive storm to the Aleutians, which will alter our Northern American pattern a bit.  Somalia has seen two years worth of rainfall in two days resulting in catastrophic flooding, so the very heavy rainfall is farther west of the typical MJO zone, making it more neutral & less of a factor in our weather.  If not for the warmer pattern SSTs already in place this would likely be a bigger cold outbreak.

The positive NAO, negative PNA & warm phases of the MJO with the rapidly-strengthening traditional La Nina should result in big time warmth & wet weather returning.

NAO:

PNA:

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