November 23, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

We are tracking rain & potentially brief snow on Thanksgiving & an eventual big warm-up as we start December (before MUCH colder air arrives with snowfall risk)...

Posted: Nov 23, 2021 10:40 AM
Updated: Nov 23, 2021 4:13 PM

It was the coldest morning of the Fall so far with 18-23 this followed the coldest afternoon highs of Fall yesterday with 34-37.

Sunshine with some high cirrus today & a southwest to south wind 10-15 mph highs reached 41-46. They will be followed by 29-36, then rising to 34-40 tonight as south wind really kicks up (to 15-25 mph).

It will feel more like the 20s tomorrow morning with the wind.

With thickening clouds tomorrow, highs of 52-59.  Southwest winds will run sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph.  If we can get optimal mixing, 45 mph gusts will be possible.  The wind will make it feel cooler than the actual air temperature.

Rain comes in tomorrow night with rain into Thursday morning to midday.

The rain may end as rain/snow mix to even all brief snow if the colder air can get in here fast enough.

Winds will shift to the northwest at 15-30 mph.

Highs early will run 45-50, followed temperatures falling to 33-38.

Some clearing is possible late in the day.  

Lows Friday night will drop to 20-23.

Total rainfall should average around 0.32" with overall amounts of 0.20-0.50" expected.

Friday looks mostly sunny, followed by increasing clouds late with a few spotty snow/sleet showers Friday night-Saturday AM.  Highs of 35-40 are likely Friday, followed by 27-29 Friday night.

Saturday & Sunday are partly cloudy with highs 42-47 & lows 27-30.

Monday & Tuesday warm up to 47-52 & 52-59, respectively.

After this tranquil weather with a big warm-up eventually to the 50s & 60s, rain returns around December 2 or 3 with the main storm system passing just after that time.

Rain, some thunder, strong winds & warmth will give way to sharply colder weather with howling northwest winds & potential of change-over to bout of some snow.

Data continues to suggest ALL WARM & WET for the first part of or entire week of December with a warm, wet Phase 6 MJO (lining up with +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO, etc., which all spell WARM).  

However, SHARP change to solid COLD, SNOWY Phase 7 tends to occur after this warmth.  

EPO is still a bit + into December, which could limit the worst of the cold for here, but other -NAO, -AO transitions support notion of this sudden change to real winter after early December.  Mid to late December to mid January are trending colder than normal overall.

Often in these sharp transitions you get severe weather in the South & sometimes as far north as Indiana.

Both 1983 & 1995 saw these significant pattern shifts with warmth in early December with severe weather outbreak(s) in the South to as far north as the Lower Ohio Valley, then much colder & snowier weather with shift from solid Phase 6 to Phase 7.

So....WARM, WET PHASE 6 to sharply COLD, SNOWY PHASE 7 (again, magnitude of cold has the potential to be tempered by +EPO....we will monitor for sure!).  If EPO goes - then we could really see the significant cold with near/record low temperatures on a few days in December.

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming does support weakening of the Polar Vortex for Arctic air to roar southward in December to early January.  

The red in the ECMWF projection below shows the warming event in the stratosphere that precedes Arctic outbreaks by weeks.

A secondary SSW episode keeps the Arctic air spilling in here in shots into early & mid January.  Again, we will have to wait until after around the 17th likely to get our way out of that pattern the way it looks right now.

The cold pattern still looks likely to cycle back to much warmer & wetter after snowy, cold, then clipper snow, cold regime in December with many below 0 nights possible.

This big thaw with flooding risk due to rain, some storms & a lot of wind is timed out for late January.

It would not even surprise me if we have a random near/record warm day with severe risk with snow piles still in the parking lots & patches of snow in shady areas)

Cold, snowy pattern should return in February before it goes back the other way to warmth once again by late February

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More active weather headed our way...
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