November 22, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Let's take another look at the now to winter forecast & pattern based on the latest analysis (& also dig into the Thanksgiving travel forecast)...

Posted: Nov 22, 2021 11:22 AM
Updated: Nov 22, 2021 5:20 PM

Highs yesterday reached 50-59, followed by lows of 22-28 this morning.  Highs today reached 34-37, the coldest day of the Fall so far.

A few patches of high/mid clouds are possible tonight as surface warm front approaches.  Wind will become light & turn to the southwest with time.  Lows will level off at 20-24.

Mostly sunny skies & southwest wind at 10-15 mph will occur tomorrow with highs 41-46.  Lows Tuesday night will drop to 29-34, then rise to 34-38 as the wind increases from the southwest, then south-southwest at 15-25 mph by 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be a windy day with south-southwest winds 25-45 mph with a mix of high & mid clouds with sunshine.

Rain will develop Wednesday night with lows 43-49 with strong south-southwest winds.

Rain will last through Thursday morning.  If the colder air gets in here fast enough, a change-over to snow could occur for a brief time on Thanksgiving.  Whether we see dustings of snow or any flakes at all will be determined by how quickly that cold races in.  40s Winds look strong Thursday from the northwest at 25-40 mph.

Friday looks mostly sunny with highs 35-42 with less wind.

Note the two rounds of strong winds Wednesday-Thursday.  After that, the next round of truly windy weather looks to unfold Monday of next week.

Little shortwave pivots through Friday night with a few snow flurries to snow showers (with near 30 to the lower 30s).

Saturday & Sunday look warmer with sunshine, southwest winds & highs in the 40s to near 50 & lows in the 20s & 30s.

Next Saturday to that following Wednesday (November 17-December 2) looks pretty tranquil right with a lot of dry weather dominating. 

Rain, windy & thunder with warm temperatures here (50s & 60s) still looks to occur in early December (most likely in the December 6-8 time frame right now).

Some severe risk could get as far north as I-70 if everything lines up the way it looks right now.

Arctic air rushing in behind system may bring rapid change-over to period of snow with temperatures falling from 50s & 60s to 20s & 30s suddenly.

Winds looks strong ahead of & behind the cold front with gusts to 50 mph possible.

Blizzard may hit areas Colorado to Minnesota.

This is very important as this is the time we see the MJO go from solid Phase 6 to 7, going from a very warm phase to a very cold phase this time of year.  You typically get a big storm system in this change & analog shows high likelihood of severe weather outbreak in the Lower Missississippi Valley & Deep South to as far north as Missouri & southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky in this set-up.

We also see a highly-positive EPO during this time, which is strong upper jet in the Plains & eastern Canada pushing warmth northeastward.

6 is a warm, wet phase, 7 is a cold, snowy phase (Phase 8 is the coldest, which is typically a clipper pattern for us & that looks to occur by Christmas):

Given this & the tendency of NAO, AO to go negative & PNA to go positive with Sudden Stratospheric Warming to be underway, it all points to below normal temperatures frequently around December 8 through early January.  Snowfall looks above normal with the coldest temperatures occurring in late December & perhaps early January.

Using analog data, it still looks to cycle back to a big thaw with warmth by mid January before we go back the other way to end January & move through early February with below normal temperatures & above normal snowfall.  50s & 60s are possible in late January with even thunder, flooding risk & a lot of wind.

West Lafayette
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 26°
Kokomo
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 22°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 23°
Fowler
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 26°
Williamsport
Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 28°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 22°
Frankfort
Mostly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 24°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 28°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 28°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 22°
More active weather headed our way...
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1118335

Reported Deaths: 17712
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1455892240
Lake724831254
Allen67063882
Hamilton51060487
St. Joseph49820649
Elkhart40268546
Vanderburgh34714497
Tippecanoe30808276
Johnson27696467
Hendricks26313385
Porter25657386
Madison21131455
Clark20238279
Vigo19059309
LaPorte17192261
Howard16770314
Delaware16761303
Monroe16628220
Kosciusko14293167
Hancock13113186
Bartholomew12983190
Warrick12210190
Wayne12090269
Floyd12011226
Grant11998245
Morgan10409192
Boone9869124
Noble9316122
Henry9177169
Marshall9152147
Dearborn8970100
Dubois8835140
Shelby8281130
Cass8167128
Lawrence8057185
DeKalb7817109
Jackson770793
Huntington7661115
Gibson7102118
Montgomery7101123
Harrison6954100
Knox6915116
Steuben669089
Whitley659660
Miami6595113
Putnam645085
Clinton627179
Wabash6221111
Jasper613192
Jefferson5856105
Ripley557294
Adams542281
Daviess5076117
Scott491580
Wells4836105
White478469
Greene4701101
Clay464662
Decatur4611110
Fayette452496
Jennings452067
LaGrange427491
Posey410044
Randolph3944107
Washington390956
Fountain375964
Fulton364874
Spencer362247
Starke355574
Owen353577
Sullivan348555
Orange331372
Jay331050
Rush309533
Carroll296239
Franklin292744
Perry290553
Vermillion283658
Tipton251167
Parke250130
Pike248644
Blackford222144
Pulaski210359
Newton182452
Brown177550
Crawford169129
Benton168417
Martin152120
Switzerland147612
Warren135816
Union122616
Ohio92413
Unassigned0595

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events