Highs yesterday reached 50-59, followed by lows of 22-28 this morning. Highs today reached 34-37, the coldest day of the Fall so far.
A few patches of high/mid clouds are possible tonight as surface warm front approaches. Wind will become light & turn to the southwest with time. Lows will level off at 20-24.
Mostly sunny skies & southwest wind at 10-15 mph will occur tomorrow with highs 41-46. Lows Tuesday night will drop to 29-34, then rise to 34-38 as the wind increases from the southwest, then south-southwest at 15-25 mph by 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Wednesday will be a windy day with south-southwest winds 25-45 mph with a mix of high & mid clouds with sunshine.
Rain will develop Wednesday night with lows 43-49 with strong south-southwest winds.
Rain will last through Thursday morning. If the colder air gets in here fast enough, a change-over to snow could occur for a brief time on Thanksgiving. Whether we see dustings of snow or any flakes at all will be determined by how quickly that cold races in. 40s Winds look strong Thursday from the northwest at 25-40 mph.
Friday looks mostly sunny with highs 35-42 with less wind.
Note the two rounds of strong winds Wednesday-Thursday. After that, the next round of truly windy weather looks to unfold Monday of next week.
Little shortwave pivots through Friday night with a few snow flurries to snow showers (with near 30 to the lower 30s).
Saturday & Sunday look warmer with sunshine, southwest winds & highs in the 40s to near 50 & lows in the 20s & 30s.
Next Saturday to that following Wednesday (November 17-December 2) looks pretty tranquil right with a lot of dry weather dominating.
Rain, windy & thunder with warm temperatures here (50s & 60s) still looks to occur in early December (most likely in the December 6-8 time frame right now).
Some severe risk could get as far north as I-70 if everything lines up the way it looks right now.
Arctic air rushing in behind system may bring rapid change-over to period of snow with temperatures falling from 50s & 60s to 20s & 30s suddenly.
Winds looks strong ahead of & behind the cold front with gusts to 50 mph possible.
Blizzard may hit areas Colorado to Minnesota.
This is very important as this is the time we see the MJO go from solid Phase 6 to 7, going from a very warm phase to a very cold phase this time of year. You typically get a big storm system in this change & analog shows high likelihood of severe weather outbreak in the Lower Missississippi Valley & Deep South to as far north as Missouri & southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky in this set-up.
We also see a highly-positive EPO during this time, which is strong upper jet in the Plains & eastern Canada pushing warmth northeastward.
6 is a warm, wet phase, 7 is a cold, snowy phase (Phase 8 is the coldest, which is typically a clipper pattern for us & that looks to occur by Christmas):
Given this & the tendency of NAO, AO to go negative & PNA to go positive with Sudden Stratospheric Warming to be underway, it all points to below normal temperatures frequently around December 8 through early January. Snowfall looks above normal with the coldest temperatures occurring in late December & perhaps early January.
Using analog data, it still looks to cycle back to a big thaw with warmth by mid January before we go back the other way to end January & move through early February with below normal temperatures & above normal snowfall. 50s & 60s are possible in late January with even thunder, flooding risk & a lot of wind.