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November 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Nov 22, 2019 3:40 PM
Updated: Nov 23, 2019 11:49 AM

Highs today ran 38-45 with a slow clearing process of the low clouds.

Tonight, some high & mid clouds are on the increase, but with a calm wind, temperatures have already tanked to 25-32 as of 9:15 p.m. over the viewing area (with a heavy, glittery frost).

Clouds will continue to increase & thicken tonight & temperatures should level off in the 22-28 range, then even rise by 7 a.m. to around 25-31 as an east-southeast to east wind commences at 3-6 mph.

Then, period of scattered rain, snow & sleet showers will pass, most likely in the southern & southeastern half of the viewing area (per latest analysis but subject to change).

Wind will go east in the morning to the northeast, then north, then west late at 8-16 mph.

Timing would be late morning to afternoon.

Localized minor snowfall accumulation is possible.

It still appears a discontinuous band of heavier, convective-like snowfall will set up & it is still a bit unclear where, but the best idea is southeast of our viewing area (+1" likely)

We will monitor tonight & tomorrow.

Our north half may see zero precipitation, but just clouds.

We will see.  Tricky on how far north precipitation will get.  It cold shift northward some & give everyone some of the precip.  Stay tuned for update in the morning.

So, highs will vary from 35-42 with warmest readings in the northwest & coldest in the far south & southeast.

Some fog & frost is possible Sunday morning with lows 25-31, followed by partly cloudy skies Sunday & highs 44-49 with a southwest wind at 10-15 mph.

Monday looks partly cloudy & breezy.  After morning lows of 32-36, highs should run 51-56 with southwest wind at 15-25 mph.

Periodic rainfall & isolated thunder is likely Tuesday with strong southwest winds to 35 mph.

The heaviest rainfall should pass late Tuesday evening-early night with isolated thunder still possible.

Temperatures should run in the 50s.

A band of wind-driven, heavy, wet snow is likely northwest of our area with potential of 3-6" accumulations.

Corridor of severe risk will evolve eastern Texas & Louisiana up to Missouri (a tongue or pocket of SLIGHT RISK may occur given current data).

Some MARGINAL RISK parameters show up to Illinois & southwest Indiana.

As the surface low deepens from 997 mb to 990 mb in a rapid track from Wichita to near Grand Rapids, our wind gusts should peak Tuesday night with switch from southwest to west, then northwest.

With gusts easily to 35 mph Tuesday, a period of howling winds of 40-50 mph could occur Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning.

A total of 0.60-1.10" of rainfall seems possible from the entire system.

A few early showers (couple flakes possible) are possible Wednesday morning with temperatures 35-40.

Otherwise, winds will turn north to the north & slowly decrease with mostly cloudy skies.

Early Thanksgiving day looks bright with sunshine & frost, but high & mid clouds to the west will be on the increase gradually.

We may turn mostly cloudy to cloudy by evening.

With east wind at 5-10 mph, highs should run 44-49 after 25-30 in the morning.

Thanksgiving midday with high/mid cloudiness in increasing trend from the southwest:

At this point, thinking Friday will be mostly cloudy to cloudy with east-southeast wind early turning to the southeast, then south.  Wind should increase from 5-10 mph to 10-20 mph.

Highs of 47-52 seem reasonable after morning lows of 34-41.

A blossoming of showers & some thunder should occur Friday night, especially after 11 p.m.

Lows of 43-47 are possible with strong south wind at 10-20 mph.

Periods of rain & potential isolated thunder should pass next Saturday, November 30 with south wind 10-15 mph.  Highs in the 50s seem reasonable.

Risk of heavy, flash flood-producing rainfall & severe weather will exist from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid- & Lower-Mississippi Valley. 

We are looking at more rain & then even a few isolated storms here that Saturday night.  MARGINAL RISK may sneak into part of our area, but higher severe probabilities seem likely south of our area.

Highs in the 50s & 60s are possible here with strong southwest winds to 40 mph.

A total of 0.75-1.25" of total rainfall is possible late November 29-December 1 in our area.

Precipitable Water values are impressive for the time of year.....up to 3X normal.

These values may reach even higher values in the Lower Ohio Valley with developing flash flooding risk.

Brief cold snap may follow (highs 30s, lows teens) this warmth & rain before we warm up again.

Another big storm system with rain, some storms & wind with 50s & 60s is possible around December 6-8.

It is possible that we recieve 0.80-1.50" with severe weather across the South, but the worst in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Wabash may reach that flood stage point or a bit more......possible.

It could be another situation of severe weather & flooding rainfall for parts of the Lower Ohio to Mid & Lower Mississippi Valleys.

Cold wave should follow with temperatures below to well below normal.  Potential is there for a near "Polar Vortex" type event with temperatures below zero with some highs only near zero to single digits after December's mid point.

One brief big warm-up & sudden big thaw may occur amidst all this in late December, par for the course in this cold, snowy, but extreme winter with sudden 70-degree rises briefly & high wind events.

In the map below showing the temp anomalies for the around mid to latter December period, only thing is that I think there will be more orange or above normal temperatures in California & Oregon (as split flow develops there).

Arctic highs with surface pressure to 1038 mb will be with us at times in late December.

Nor'Easters may occur, as shown in this projection about a week out from Christmas.

We may very well have a couple of situations like this with winter storms in latter December with snow here & lots of cold, then energy transfer occur to developing Nor'Easter on the East Coast.

Storms would tend to barrel into Washington State & British Columbia, then dive into Colorado, then the Texas Panhandle.  There, they would re-organize & track through Kentucky, bringing us snowfall.  However, then the snowfall is drawn away with time by Nor'Easter.

We saw this frequently last winter.

It prevented us from getting a powerhouse, major, heavy snowfall, but still led to above normal snowfall for the snow season.

A couple more round of bitter cold or the "Polar Vortex" type will occur in January with heavy snowfall & temperatures to -21 with wind chills to -40.  A sudden brief major warm-up mid to late January could occur out of seemingly no where in an extreme winter.

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Clearing & colder with patchy fog tonight to early Thursday morning.
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