After highs upper 30s to mid 40s Friday & near 50 to the mid 50s Saturday, today they have reached the 50s to 60. Warmest temperatures have been in our northwestern counties where sunshine has been maximized ahead of the surface cold front after the rainfall passed.
Rainfall of 0.25-0.70" has occurred over a good chunk of the viewing area. The exception is the far northwestern areas that have had less than 0.25".
Lows tonight will turn much colder & run 23-28, but with northwest winds 20-30 mph, wind chills will run 10-17 (with clearing skies). This, after early Sunday morning temperatures in the 40s, so it will feel sharply colder Monday morning to head to work & school.
West winds 10-20 mph & mostly sunny skies Monday will give way to highs 35-40. Wind chills will run 20s to mid 30s.
Wind goes southwest Tuesday at 10-20 mph with mostly sunny skies & highs 41-47 after frosty morning lows of 20-24.
30s then rising temperatures Tuesday night (with increasing clouds) will give way to 50s Wednesday with southwest wind 20-30 mph (partly to mostly cloudy skies).
Rain is likely Wednesday night after midnight, then run up to early afternoon. Highs 50 to the 50s will be followed by falling temperatures in the afternoon as the wind turns south & southwest to northwest 20-35 mph.
If the cold air gets in fast enough, then there could be brief change-over to snow or mix before the rain ends on Thanksgiving.
After this, highs Black Friday should run in the 40s.
Saturday, November 27 looks partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the 40s.
Shortwave may bring some scattered snow showers Saturday night with lows in the lower 30s.
Sunday, November 28 looks partly cloudy with highs in the 40s.
Monday, November 29 looks mostly sunny with highs in the 40s.
Shortwave may bring a few snow flurries around November 30 or December 1 with highs 30s to 40, but it should rapidly warm after that as the wind turns to the southwest.
Rain (some thunder), windy weather & warmth occur December 4-7 with highs in the 50s & 60s (.....far southern Illinois & southwestern Kentucky has potential to see 70).
Severe weather risk could occur in Missouri to southern Illinois to southwestern Indiana & through Kentucky:
Quite a severe weather outbreak may evolve, especially over the Lower Mississippi Valley & overall from Louisiana to Alabama.
Tornadoes are a good bet, some potentially strong, long-track. This pattern (which I talk about below) with +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, solid Phase 6 MJO abruptly going to 7 with time......all supports cool-season severe weather outbreaks & tornado outbreaks over the South with severe weather as far north as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky.
All of these indices together puts the highest tornado target area over northern Louisiana & central & southern Mississippi per analog analysis.
Similar patterns also support a lot of rainfall in the cool season here based on the top 5 of 105 analogs:
In early December (December 1-10) it is looking warm & wet.......BUT COLD will follow....
-PNA means trough West, ridge East, +NAO (traditional +NAO....there is a +/- "West-based NAO type & +/-"East-based NAO type) & +AO spells warmth East, +EPO means strong Pacific jet signaling warmth East...
Solid phase 6 MJO (as MJO re-awakens once again) supports warmth East with above-normal rainfall....
However, note what happens by December 11.....we are in Phase 7, which is a cold phase & we will likely stay there through Christmas. We should then rotate to Phase 8, which is also COLD.
There are also signs of very negative EPO developing, along with negative NAO & AO & positive PNA. This all signals cold, snowy weather mid to late December to early January before turning suddenly mild again with a major thaw & rainfall with flooding risk in mid to late January.
Also....check out the Sudden Stratospheric Warming underway that means weakening of the Polar Vortex in December to early January & Arctic outbreaks:
The warm, wet Phase 6 MJO going to cold, snowy Phase 7, then eventually Phase 8 very cold, clipper phase with less snow/precip:
Note how the Cold Phase 7 has above normal precipitation, signaling snowy pattern. Once we get to Phase 8, it is the coldest, but it tends to be more Alberta Clippers with lighter snows than larger winter storms.
After this cold pattern with snow, we get the much warmer, thawing, wet regime with some flooding risk mid to late January, followed by the return of the cold pattern in early to mid-February (with above normal snowfall).
HOWEVER, I still think it will be an early start to spring in March. March looks warmer, but also wetter than normal.
April is looking cooler & drier than normal, followed by wetter & cooler than normal May & overall wetter & cooler than normal summer 2022.
We should flip to traditional El Nino for Fall-Winter-Spring 2022-23. After Moderate La Nina Modoki, we should go neutral by May 2022, then to El Nino by August 2022.
Next Fall looks overall cooler & wetter than normal, followed by a warmer & drier than normal winter with below normal snowfall.
Summer 2023 is trending warmer & wetter than normal overall as El Nino wanes & we go to a neutral state.