SEVERE WX : Excessive Heat Watch View Alerts

November 21, 12:30 AM Weather Forecast Update: Active, Windy, Stormy Pattern of Rain, Snow, Ice & Bursts of Arctic Air

A cold, stormy pattern with multiple opportunities for snow is ahead. Coldest December since 2000 or 1989 is possible.

Posted: Nov 20, 2018 11:16 PM
Updated: Nov 21, 2018 1:12 AM

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING

The coldest Thanksgiving since 1880 is possible in the Northeast U.S.  It looks looks like the coldest Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade on record in New York City.

We will miss that Arctic air that will roar into the Northeast tomorrow.  It our winds were from the northeast on Thanksgiving, then we could very well bleed some of that cold air in, but winds look east-southeast to southeast.

We will have the tail end of that front pass, shifting our winds from southwest to northwest, then north by mid-afternoon at 10-20 mph.

So, after highs of 37-44 initially, we should fall to 32-35 by late afternoon.  Looks like a lot of clouds.

We should clear tomorrow night with frostly lows of 23-27.

With sun & a cool, brisk east-southeast to southeast wind, highs of 42-48 are likely Thanksgiving.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY

Skies will turn cloudy Friday & winds from the south will increase to 20-40 mph late.  Rain with isolated thunder is likely Friday night with the wind after highs near 53 & lows near 43.

Rain will exit early Saturday.  Winds will relax Saturday with some partial clearing & 50s.

If you are looking for a decent day to get Christmas lights up before the wind, rain, snow & cold, Saturday is the day to do it.  It does not look best to get lights up for a long while after Saturday.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY

After some tranquility Saturday night, strong winds return Sunday with gusts 30-40 mph as early as late Sunday morning.  Gusts 38-45 mph are possible in the afternoon from the southeast.  Rain & isolated thunder should overspread the area in the evening.  Dynamics may support even an isolated storm Sunday night-early Monday with the rain with the gusty winds.

The strongest wind gusts of 45-55 mph should occur late Sunday night-early Monday morning with rain.  A few limbs may come down.  A few isolated power outages may occur.  Bring your trash cans in, as well as your Christmas figurines & decorations.  The lights will hold up, but not those plastic Santas, etc. in the yard!

Significant snowfall accumulations with thunder & gusts +50 mph northern Missouri to northern Illinois may result in blizzard conditions.

It should remain windy all of Monday, but the gusts will decrease slowly.  Gusty winds of 30-40 mph will continue right through afternoon.  Rain should change to snow before tapering.  Some minor, wind-driven accumulation of 1" or less is possible.  Stay tuned for updates to this forecast.

Snow showers are possible Monday night-Tuesday with gusty westerly to northwesterly winds at 28-35 mph.  With highs only in the 20s Tuesday, wind chills will run in the single digits to teens.

NEXT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

Arctic air will be firmly entrenched mid to late next week with highs only in the 20s with lows in the single digits & teens, despite sunshine.  At least the winds will relax, however.  It will feel like January, however.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1 TO MONDAY, DECEMBER 3

With Arctic high & the unseasonable cold so early, storm will bring ice & snow from Colorado to Texas & that storm will move northeastward.  It should bring accumulating snowfall & gusty winds to blow & drift that snow about.  This would occur around December 1-2.

It still looks like what could prevent the storm from producing significant snowfall here is the fact that an energy & moisture transfer to a developing Nor'Easter could cut totals some.

Scattered snow showers in gusty northwest winds will keep it frigid with highs only in the 18-24 range.  Wind chills below zero seem possible.  Snow showers could occur as far south as central Alabama & Georgia.

DECEMBER 4-27

The same cold, windy, snowy to icy pattern will dominate December.  We may have three snow/ice systems December 10-23.  Nearly each one may evolve into powerhouse Nor'Easters.  Some nights below zero (air temperature, not wind chill) are a good bet here as the increasingly flaccid Polar Vortex allows surges of Arctic air southward.

I still think the odds of a White Christmas are high here.  There are signs of temperature moderation after Christmas, but not before December 2018 may very well make it in the top 5 coldest on record for the area.

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Lingering Showers/Storms Today, then Turning Very Hot!
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