November 21, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some rain/snow/sleet to more rain with strong winds & mild weather. However there are big changes down the road.

Posted: Nov 21, 2019 9:24 PM
Updated: Nov 21, 2019 11:09 PM

Peak measured wind gusts today from AWOS/ASOS, INDOT & Mesonet sources:

Highs today ran in the 50s with the heaviest, most widespread rainfall in the morning with even an isolated rumble of thunder.  Rainfall was spotty & drizzly this afternoon-evening with band of some showers just ahead of the the actual cold front.

Temperatures are now cooling off to 42-49 as of 9:40 p.m. with wind shift to the west & west-northwest over the area.

We are still getting gusts to 30 mph at times.

Looks windy to breezy tonight to tomorrow morning with gradual decreasing wind tomorrow afternoon as wind shift from the northwest to the north to the northeast.

Some breaks in the clouds are possible in the northwest tonight, followed by mostly cloudy to cloudy skies tomorrow morning (lows 32-38).  Some clearing & cloud breakage is possible off & on tomorrow (highs 41-46) before we turn cloudy again tomorrow night.

After lows of 26 northwest to 32 southeast & around 30 at Greater Lafayette, temperatures may rise/level off to/at 29-32 area-wide.

Period of rain/snow/sleet showers is possible Saturday. 

Right now, looks like timing is morning to early afternoon, but we will monitor.  After the precipitation, skies look mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Localized minor snowfall (& sleetfall) accumulation, mainly on grassy & elevated surface, is possible.

The potential is there for some localized pockets of brief +1" accumulations in a corridor over eastern Illinois & south-central Indiana, but exact placement is iffy at the moment. 

We will monitor.

This will be a cold upper low with convective-type precipitation resulting in variable amounts.

Highs Saturday should run 35-41 with a northeast wind turning to the west.

Sunday looks partly cloudy with 40s to near 50 after 27-31 in the morning.

Monday 50 to the 50s are likely with breezy & partly cloudy skies.

Rain, wind, 50s are likely Tuesday-Tuesday night.

Looks like just enough cold air for a wind-driven, heavy, wet snow from Kansas & Missouri to Iowa, Illinois & southern Wisconsin as 1000 mb surface low deepens to as low as 992 mb.

40s Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies will give way to clearing skies Wednesday night with 20s to 30.

Thanksgiving may have sunshine early, but it should cloud over with a southeast wind with highs in the 40s to 50.

One storm system may bring rain & thunder November 29-30, then main storm deepens rapidly & produces potential blizzard conditions from Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota & Ontario.  It does not look overly cold with 20s & 30s, but high winds & heavy snowfall are possible.

Severe weather outbreak could occur from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  We will see if isolated severe risk gets this far north.  It is possible.

50s & 60s are possible here.

The temperature anomalies are impressive!

There are suggestions of us getting as warm as 62-66 with widespread record warmth just west of our area with highs to 70.

We will see.  I do think "50s & 60s" wording will suffice for now.

This is very similar to what occurred in 1991 with historic, record cold in early November with epic Minnesota blizzard, then the unusual warmth & severe weather of late month.  Squall line raked the state in the early morning hours of November 30, 1991 with gust of 100 mph in Hendricks County, Indiana.

Another impressive storm will barrel into California while moisture surges back northeastward from the Gulf & the Pacific. 

This storm should bring widespread rainfall, some thunder & strong winds around December 10-11 (after a few showers perhaps as early as December 8-9).

Final system around December 15 shoudl turn the tide big-time to cold, more wintry pattern & it will get progressively colder with time. 

Still looks like cold, cold air & a split flow pattern in the West with ideal conditions for Panhandle cyclogenesis developing in latter December.

A situation like this may evolve multiple times with system dropping out of the Pacific Northwest, re-organizing in the Texas Panhandle, then riding northeastward with snow here.

Also, a situation may evolve with the Southeast blocking ridge right off the coast that causes a very, very sharp temperature gradient along the East Coast.

This could cause energy transfers to occur where we get snow, then new storm forms on the Coast & energy is transferred from our storm to that Nor'Easter.

Timing of everything is in question, but trend is for progressively wintry weather in the latter half of December with significant cold outbreaks in early to mid-January (possibly even earlier).

Keep in mind that this is an extreme winter.  I cannot rule out amidst all of the cold & snow of a random 50-degree warm-up for one day with fog, wind & rain before we tank again.

Here is the projected latter December West split-flow set-up with dry, warm upper ridging in California to Oregon to Utah & Arizona with storm after storm in Washington, British Columbia to Idaho.

Meanwhile, subtropical jet will pump deep moisture into Texas & Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Bitterly cold air will ridge southward from central & eastern Canada.

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