Fog this morning with lows of 32-38 has given way to some sun with highs of 47-54.
We will turn cloudy tonight. With lows of 41-46 initially, temperatures should rise to 44-49 later tonight with a light southeast wind.
Showers begin to move in & increase early Thursday morning.
Heaviest, most-widespread rainfall (with potential of isolated thunder) would be morning to very early afternoon with temperatures rising from the 40s to the 50s with strong south to south-southwest winds.
Isolated severe risk should occur Kansas to Texas. It should then transfer to Louisiana with time.
Many high-resolution models want to keep areas just ahead of the actual cold front overcast late afternoon through evening with no CAPE, leading to a lack of much shower/thunder development at all.
I would prefer to go with potential of some low-topped some scattered showers & thunder along the front late day-evening.
Highs should peak at 55-60 with 0.25-0.50" of total rainfall.
Gusts of 30-45 mph are likely at times tomorrow from the south & southwest. A few localized gusts of 45-50 mph could occur.
Wind will slowly decrease tomorrow night after shift to northwest. Lows will run 33-39.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday with north to northeast winds at 10-20 mph will occur. Highs of 40-46 are likely, followed by 28-32 Friday night.
A period of some rain/snow showers is possible Saturday morning. If there would be any snowfall accumulation it would tend to be localized & brief. We will monitor, however, for any changes to this. Stay tuned.
Sunday looks partly cloudy & tranquil with 45-50, followed by 51-56 Monday with gusty south-southwest winds to 30 mph.
Powerful storm system should roar through Tuesday-Tuesday night with rain, thunder, strong winds (+40 mph gusts possible) & 50s to 60s.
A nasty, wind-driven storm of wet snow plastering (almost equivalent to wet, sloppy cement) to everything should occur Iowa to northwestern Wisconsin. Some gusts could reach 60 mph with 5:1 snow ratios for heavy wet snow with temperatures near 32.
Here, 0.60-1.10" of total rainfall is possible.
Severe weather is likely in part of the South with risk of isolated severe storm to Iowa.
A few early rain/snow showers are possible Wednesday morning with 35-40, followed by mostly cloudy skies & highs 42-48.
With some clearing, lows Wednesday night should run 26-31.
At this point, Thanksgiving looks to feature increasing clouds (with skies becoming cloudy by evening) with highs 44-50 with a east to southeast wind at 5-10 mph.
Another impressive powerhouse storm with wind, warmth, rain & thunder should pass around Friday-Saturday morning with highs 58-63. Wind gusts of +40 mph are likely.
0.70-1.25" total rainfall is possible.
Significant snowstorm to blizzard (although it will not be overly cold) may occur South Dakota to Minnesota with 60 mph gusts & heavy, wet, plaster- or wet cement-like snowfall.
With a wedge of colder air bleeding in around surface high over Quebec, a period of freezing rain with icing possible over Michigan (before changing to rain).
Severe weather is likely across the southern U.S. with some severe risk as far north as Iowa. We will monitor our area.
Another storm of rain & wind is possible following this one with a another quick warm-up.
Overall, it looks cold in the West & warm in the East overall now to mid-December. Indeed, our temperatures will fluctuate, but this is the overall trend.
Wetter than normal pattern should dominate, propped up by blocking warm far Southeast ridge & continuing West trough.
Much colder weather with increasing risk of winter storm or two will occur in latter December.
Arctic air will be dislodged.
Split flow of subtropical & Polar jets favor winter storm development southwest of our area.
Substantial to significant stratospheric warming episode should bring a couple "Polar Vortex" outbreaks with winter storm risk. This risk will be high early to mid January.
Sudden major warm-up with wind & wet weather just after this should see another such event follow either at the very end of January or early February.
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