November 20, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update: Tweaks to Timing of Sunday System & Snow, Arctic Blast On the Horizon

An active forecast of strong winds, rain, snow & cold, cold weather is ahead.

Posted: Nov 20, 2018 4:14 PM
Updated: Nov 20, 2018 5:01 PM

Low clouds will be stubborn to clear tonight or tomorrow (other than just some occasional holes in the clouds), so went mostly cloudy tonight & tomorrow.  Lows tonight will run 28-30.

Dry cold front will pass midday-early afternoon tomorrow.  After highs 37-44, temperatures will fall to 31-35 later in the afternoon as winds go from southwest to northwest, then north at 10-20 mph.

Skies should clear tomorrow night, along with decreasing wind.  This will allow lows to drop to 24-27. 

The bulk of the cold air will hit the Northeast & not here.  Temperatures Thanksgiving morning may end up 25-35 degrees BELOW NORMAL!  It will be brutally cold there & possibly the coldest Thanksgiving since at least the 1880s.

As for Thanksgiving, it looks mostly sunny & 42-49 after a frosty start.  Winds will increase to 10-20 mph from the east-southeast, then the southeast.  There will just be some high wispy cirrus around with all of that sunshine. 

After 30-35 Thursday night, skies will become cloudy by Friday afternoon, along with strong southerly winds of 20-40 mph.  Rain & isolated thunder will arrive Friday evening & pass Friday night with lows in the 40s, followed by 54-57 Saturday.  Skies will gradually clear after a few early morning showers.  It will be rather breezy from the southwest.

The Sunday system is slowing down.  It looks like we may not get any rainfall from it until Sunday evening & some isolated thunder may accompany that rainfall.

It looks like a windy day from the southeast then south at 20-40 mph. 

Monday morning-midday looks very windy with west to northwest winds sustained 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph.  Rain will change to a period of snow by Monday afternoon as temperatures fall from 40-45 in the morning to 30-35 by late afternoon.

With some snow Monday night-Tuesday & temperatures 20-25 Monday night & only 24-28 Tuesday, some minor accumulation is possible.  Gusty west winds of up to 40 mph are possible into Tuesday.  Any minor snowfall will blow about.

As the Arctic air comes in, lows Tuesday night may drop to 13-17 with wind chills to 0.

Arctic high will bring sunshine & less wind Wednesday-Thursday of next week, but it will be cold with highs in the 20s to lower 30s & lows in the single digits to around 10.

With this foundation of cold air in place the next big storm system may bring snow & ice with brisk winds to the area.  It could evolve into a big Nor'Easter for the Northeast U.S.  This would be in very early December.  Another wave of snow may follow a few days after this storm system.

It is not out of the question that even this second system evolves into a Nor'Easter.  This is a pattern ripe for Nor'Easters & we are laying the groundwork for a record snow season in the Northeast for Fall-Winter-Spring 2018-19, like a few years back.  The Polar Vortex looks awfully loose during December, too, resulting in still likely invasions of Arctic air.

The good thing is that as these blow up, then tend to transfer energy & moisture from our storm systems to the main low developing on the East Coast.  So, even with accumulating snow/ice in early December, the amounts may be less than what they could be.  Nonetheless, it still looks like the potential for a decent amount here from these two systems.

Arctic high may follow with very cold weather lingering to mid-December.  Some of the cold may rival the 1989, 2000 cold in December, which was quite remarkable.  It would not surprise me if we end up with the coldest December in at least 18 years, perhaps more.

I do think temperatures may moderate before we get some snow/ice a few days before Christmas.  That is the pattern, at least.  Warming trend should ensue after Christmas with a melt, followed by bursts of Arctic air in early January.

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