November 20, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is in. Here is an update.

Posted: Nov 20, 2019 9:48 PM
Updated: Nov 20, 2019 11:11 PM

Where some sun appeared today, highs reached 50 to the 50s.  Where it stayed largely cloudy, temperatures stayed in the 40s.

Rain & isolated thunder is likely morning to midday, followed by a break with just a few showers.  The greatest potential for all-out storms will be in Missouri to central Illinois during the morning (coresponding with strong low-level jet & potent lift of mid-level jet streak there.  Small hail is possible there.

Highs will run in the 50s to 60 with howling south-southwest to southwest winds 20-40 mph.  Some gusts may reach 40-50 mph.

Gusts in knots:

Bad thing is that skies look quite cloudy tomorrow night, preventing us from seeing the Alpha Monocerotid Meteor Shower, which could be significant.

Most years this particular meteor shower doesn't produce much, but a short-live burst of many meteors occurred in 1925, 1935, 1985 & 1995.  Potential is there for a potent burst in 2019.

Peak is projected around 11:50 p.m., plus or minus two minutes.  It would be short-lived for an impressive peak, but it is unfortunate that our visibility will be poor to impossible due to clouds.

A few rain & snow showers are possible Saturday morning-midday.  If there would be any accumulation, it would be brief & localized.

Skies look mostly cloudy.

Stay tuned for any change.

Highs Saturday should range 36-41 after 28-32 in the morning.

Sunday looks decent with 45-50 & partly cloudy, Monday looks breezy & 50-56 with skies becoming mostly cloudy with breezy conditions.

Powerhouse storm is likely Tuesday to Tuesday night with rain, wind (gusts +40 mph), thunder & potential of 0.60-1.10" rainfall & highs 55-61.

Severe weather is possible eastern Texas & Louisiana to Arkansas.  A narrow corridor of isolated severe risk sets up as far north as central & northern Illinois.

We will monitor. 

Highs 42-47 are likely Wednesday with a few showers early giving way to then mostly cloudy & eventually partly cloudy skies.

Wind, warmth & rain with thunder is likely again around November 29-December 1 period.  50s to 60s are possible.  Note how the rainfall (not snow or ice) goes to western Ontario.  This is a testament to the projection of the strong warm air advection going way, way north.

Vigorous severe weather episode to outbreak possible Texas to parts of Oklahoma & Arkansas & western Louisiana as the main surface low deepens rapidly on track from Missouri & Iowa to Minnesota.

Winds here may gust to 40 mph from the south.

Some isolated severe risk gets as far north as southeastern Iowa, Illinois & even our area.

We will monitor.

Surface pressure may drop from 998 mb to 990 mb on accelerating track north-northeastward.

Note the convection here with heavy rainfall.

In the now-December 4 period, this is the storm with the heaviest rainfall with 0.80-1.50" possible.

Lots of warmth with this system!

Another storm system around December 4 may bring some rain here, but another round of severe weather for the South:

It will likely turn a little colder around here around December 6 with highs 30s & 40s & lows near 20 to the lower 20s for a change.

Three substantial to significant storm systems should impact the area December 8-15 with rain, warmth, wind & thunder.

There is very high potential of Arctic air & winter storm(s) beyond December's mid-point.

Here comes the cold following the warmth:

We are setting the stage for "Polar Vortex" magnitude cold outbreaks early to mid January with risk of winter storms.

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