November 2, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update: Active!

Active, wet, warm pattern ahead, followed by big changes!

Posted: Nov 2, 2018 5:45 PM
Updated: Nov 2, 2018 6:22 PM

After a couple isolated showers this evening (with mostly cloudy skies), partly skies will occur overnight with patchy dense fog developing.  Lows of 32-34 are likely.

Tomorrow, with increasing east-southeast to then south-southeast winds & partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy, highs will run 54-56.

I am toying with the idea of introducing the potential of a couple of isolated showers around for the 2-5 p.m. time period as the warm front lifts northward.  I will re-visit this in the next update.

After 44-49 tomorrow night, band of rainfall with isolated storm or two will pass Sunday.  Highs should reach 58-62.

The rainfall may diminish in the evening before a line of showers & isolated thunder pass along the actual cold front.

Any severe risk looks to be confined to the Deep South of the U.S. with this storm system.

Front will work back north as a warm front Monday, bringing gusty south winds & highs in the 60s.

Rainfall with a couple isolated storms will move in late in the day.

Surface low pressure will undergo rapid deepening Monday evening-night, causing winds to contine to increase over the area.  South winds may gust 40-45 mph at times Monday night with the rainfall & isolated storm or two.

Temperatures will remain steady in the 60s with dew points in the lower 60s.

A severe weather outbreak with wind, tornadoes & hail is likely from southern Indiana to the Gulf Coast.  The worst looks to be centered over Mississippi & Tennessee.  This will ramp up with the rapid deepening of the low from very strong upper jet streak.  This will increase the wind fields & shear.  Low-level winds will be particularly strong for a few strong tornadoes from Tennessee to Mississippi.

However, farther north, a QLCS squall line with embedded nodes, LEWP's, "dog legs" & bows will rake parts of Indiana with largely straight-line wind risk.

I do think this will affect our area, but less CAPE should keep the severe gusts isolated here.  However, winds may not only gust 40-45 mph outside of the line, but up to 50 mph from the northwest after the line passes.

Timing of that squall line would be between 3-7 a.m., it appears at the moment.

After a very early morning high of 64-66 Tuesday, temperatures should fall all day with howling winds & after some sun very early, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with a few showers for the afternoon.  We should quickly fall through the 50s & into the 40s.

Another 1-3" of rainfall is likely Sunday-Tuesday.  This will lead to a prolonged minor lowland flooding event for the Wabash River & quick, sharp rises in creeks & streams.

After lots of sun & 48-54 Wednesday, clouds will increase Thursday with 50s & some rainfall late.

The big question is regarding the Arctic air.  There area questions as to when that will get in.  It has looked to get in mid-month.

There are some indications of two lobes of Arctic air coming in.  One November 9 (next Friday), then another just after November 15 with a warm-up in-between.

The thinking is that highs will drop to the 20s & 30s with these rounds of cold.  Minor snowfall is likely in one of these rounds.

Just be prepared for two waves of cold with temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal & potential of a round of some minor snowfall.

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