November 18, 1:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast & trends update.

Posted: Nov 18, 2019 11:23 AM
Updated: Nov 18, 2019 3:49 PM

After a greater number of showers, we reached saturation all the way to the surface & formed a dense fog deck (largely after 5:30 a.m.) this morning with this very moist air atop a cold ground with some lingering patches of snow left.

Visibility has improved overall, but it should be an overall murky, gray day with some fog with a few showers & patchy drizzle around. 

Skies may clear for a while tonight.  If they can clear out enough, there is a window for dense fog development.  Also, temperatures will run 32-35, so watch for a couple lick spots with the fog potential.

Clouds should roll back in quickly Thursday morning with a wave of more widespread showers.  It is not out of the question that a few flakes mix in in the north.  This should help disperse any fog.

A few more showers will form throughout tomorrow with lots of clouds, but a bit of sun at times & highs in the 40s to as high as 50.

Dense fog is possible Tuesday night-Wednesday AM with lows near 33.  A slick spot or two is possible, as well, as skies clear & temperatures cool.

Wednesday looks nice with lots of cumulus with some sunshine & highs 52-58 with south wind at 8-14 mph. 

Thursday looks windy day & into the night.  Southwest winds may gust to 40 mph.

My thinking is that a wave of rainfall passes in the afternoon with 54-57.

Then, rain tapers in the evening & with low clouds racing across the sky, temperatures reach 58-62.

Then, we see the leftoves of what will likely be a low-topped squall line of showers & storms move in from Illinois.

There appears to be a narrow window for potential MARGINAL RISK of severe in central & southwestern Illinois Tuesday afternoon, but we look to get any leftovers in the evening.  I wouldn't rule out isolated small hail in the evening from a cell or two per latest data.

We will monitor.

Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60" are possible overall.

We should hit our highs Thursday evening, but Thursday afternoon may feature temperatures 65-70 in parts of south-central Illinois to eastern Missouri.  Even parts of the Chicago area may see 60-62 & southern Wisconsin, 55-60.

This area will likely see some sunshine Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front & thus, the development of a low-topped line of showers & storms (with potential of a corridor of MARGINAL RISK of severe weather developing).

Bit colder weather comes in Friday-Saturday, buy second storm system should track south of our area.

We may see a few flurries/snow showers Saturday.

Highs should run 38-45 Friday & 36-40 Saturday with lots of clouds.

Sunday looks warmer at 45-50 with 50s Monday, but lots of clouds.

Vigorous, strong storm system early next week should bring gusts to 45 mph, rain & thunder with another surge of warmth.

Here comes the warm surge building to our west prior to Tuesday.

Looks like rain Tuesday morning with 50-53, then a break with strong southwest & temperatures surging 58-63, then a round of rain & some storms Tuesday evening.

A robust severe weather risk may develop Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana & Mississippi with ENHANCED to MODERATE parameters noted.

It would not surprise me one bit to see MARGINAL RISK up to western Illinois & southeastern Iowa.  We will watch our area.  It is possible that MARGINAL RISK parameters expand eastward.

Rainfall totals here of 0.60-1.20" are possible.

Wednesday looks a bit cooler with 30s to 40 in the morning, then a clearing trend with highs in the 40s to 50.

Modest cool-down should be very brief as strong southwest wind with warmth should take over Thanksgiving Day.

It looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy on that day with southwest winds to 35 mph & highs 50s to 60s.  It should remain very mild that night with strong winds continuing as a parade of strong storm systems pivot out of the West & into the southern Plains.

Strong dynamics & some CAPE may even bring some severe storm risk to California Wednesday night-Thursday morning (MARGINAL RISK with rare SPC Mesoscale Discussions for central to southern California?). 

Rain & a few storms (& gradient wind gusts to 45 mph) are possible with strong storm system November 30-December 1 amidst a lot of warm weather with highs in the 50s & 60s.  The overnight low November 30 may be record warm in the 50s to 60.

0.75-1.25" rainfall is possible with this system with risk of severe weather Texas to Tennessee to Alabama (up to ENHANCED parameters seen presently).

Again, we will monitor to see how far north MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK can get in our area.

Back in 1991 we had a brutal, record-breaking cold wave in early November with the earliest single-digit temperatures on record here & then in the early morning hours of November 30, with near/record warmth, a squall line raked much of the state.  Winds gusted to 100 mph in Hendricks County, west of Indianapolis.

Overnight lows on November 30-December 1:

It is doubtful that it will cool substantially behind that big storm system.

Looks like howling southwest winds will return nearly immediately with warmth.

Another big storm will take aim on the Far West, while Gulf moisture will be surging northward.

I would expect another big wet, windy storm for us around December 6 (following the November 30-December 1 one).

Data supports another robust severe episode at that time from Texas & eastern Oklahoma to Arkansas & Louisiana.

December 2-5 looks windy for a while, but also very mild overall.

A couple more big, windy, wet, warm storm systems should pass December 9-18.

One of these looks particularly strong with severe risk from Indiana to the Gulf Coast (worst of the risk Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas) with near/record warmth of 60-65 here.

Given the wet, wet weather ahead, Wabash may reach or potentially exceed flood stage by mid-December.

Also, field will become very, very muddy & even ponded.  So, if crops are not out of the field soon, then it may take until the ground completely freezes in latter December to get the crop out of the field.

With time, snow may cover it late December & into January. 

After a very mild, wet pattern through early December, watch the big pattern change get underway as the Arctic Blast impinges on the Southeast ridge's warmth.  Latter December should turn much colder.

In a complete 180, it should get progressively very cold in late December.

Phasing of Polar & Subtropical jets in the lower Mississippi Valley with split flow in the West (with heavy rain & snow in the Pacific Northwest & warm, dry ridging in California).  With the Arctic air bleedin into the Plains & East, this support winter storm risk in our region.

The risk of a winter storm or two will go up substantially in latter December.

It will also be quite high as we move into early January, then "Polar Vortex" type cold outbreaks hit following the substantial Polar stratospheric warming episode in December.

Big change is ahead after the warm weather!

Again, it is extremes!

After brutal weather in January, sudden, massive thaw looks to take place late month with heavy rainfall, fog, storms, high winds, ice jams & potential of 80-degree temperature surge (from -20 to 60).

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