November 1-19, 2020 is the warmest such period since 1977. Our mean for our first 19 days is 50.7 & the mean for the first 19 days of 1977 was 50.7.
You may be alarmed as the 1977-78 Winter & Spring was brutal after a nice, warm fall up to late November. However, the same set-up that brought the brutal winter is not in place this Fall & Winter to Spring.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Highs today reached 64-69. In fact, the 69 at Greater Lafayette was the warmest temperature so late in the season since 2010 with 70.
Most wind gusts were 40-50 mph today, but some were as high as 59 mph.
The very dry air led to multiple field, grass & brush fires today.
Partly cloudy skies early Friday should go mostly sunny, then clouds increase & thicken later in the day. South-southwest winds should continue to decrease from 15-30 mph to 5-15 mph.
Highs of 62-70 are likely (coolest far north, warmest southwest) & around 67 at Greater Lafayette. Wind should go to the north in the evening & temperatures fall into the 50s as cold front sinks southward.
We should drop to 37-45 Friday night as front sinks south of the viewing area.
Saturday looks mostly cloudy & cool with front stalled just south of our area. Winds should be from the northeast to north-northeast at 10-20 mph with highs in the 45-54 range.
It appears that the storm system is still tracking a bit more to the south, meaning that the warmer air with t'storm risk should set up south of our area. We look more cool & showery with isolated thunder.
Scattered showers will begin to move into the viewing area Saturday evening with 40-50% coverage with showers & isolated thunder Saturday night & temperatures in the 37-43 range.
In northeastern Indiana, with temperatures falling into the 33-36 range, rain may mix with or change to snow for a time!
Showers are likely Sunday before tapering later in the day with highs in the 40s & north winds.
A total of 0.5-1.50" of rainfall are likely. Much of the area is looking at 0.50-1". The 1-1.50" amounts would tend to occur in our southern & southeastern fringe of the viewing area.
Additional rainfall is likely next week in the Tuesday evening through Thursday morning time frame. It appears the warmest weather next week will occur Wednesday night to early Tuesday morning with temperatures 58-62.
It looks dry November 28-December 1.
December 2-6 features multiple rounds of rainfall (with potential of a few isolated storms) with rainfall total amounts of 1-2.50" possible for the period. Warm temperatures in the 50s to 60 are expected..
So...............
Digging into model & analog, this gives you an idea of what to expect. This is for Greater Lafayette. It may be cooler in the north & warmer in the far south on this days.
November 20 67/44 Partly Cloudy, Decreasing Wind
November 21 52/41 Mostly Cloudy, Late Showers/Iso. Thunder
November 22 46/32 Cloudy with Showers, then Mostly Cloudy, Windy
November 23 46/27 Mostly Sunny
November 24 49/42 Becoming Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers Late, Breezy
November 25 55/50 Cloudy, Showers, Breezy
November 26 60/33 Showers/Few Storms, Then Mostly Cloudy, Falling Temperatures to 50s & 40s, Windy
November 27 53/30 Partly Cloudy, Breezy
November 28 41/23 Mostly Sunny, Windy
November 29 45/25 Mostly Sunny
November 30 54/38 Increasing Clouds, Breezy
December 1 57/50 Mostly Cloudy, Windy
December 2 62/54 Cloudy with Periods of Showers/Thunder, Windy
December 3 60/45 Cloudy with Periods of Showers/Iso. Thunder
December 4 65/56 Cloudy with Periods of Showers & a Few Storms, Windy
December 5 56/45 Cloudy with Scattered Showers, Breezy to Windy
December 6 46/31 Showers Ending, Mostly Cloudy, Windy
December 7 41/28 Mostly Cloudy, Breezy
December 8 54/40 Partly Cloudy, Breezy
