November 17, 10 AM Weather Forecast Update: The Trends All the Way Out to the End of the Year

Some light rain/snow to light snow is ahead. Also, here is the latest outlook to the end of the year.

Posted: Nov. 17, 2018 9:45 AM
Updated: Nov. 17, 2018 1:03 PM

Scattered rain/snow will go to areas of light snow with time this afternoon-evening & very slowly sink south & southeastward.

Most of the precipitation will fall evening-tonight-Sunday morning rather than this afternoon & the best chance will be in the north half of the area until this evening-tonight.

Less than 1" of snowfall accumulation is expected, mainly on grassy & elevated surfaces by later tonight-Sunday morning.

With this new data, it appears that the best potential of 0.2-0.8" of snow would be north of a Pine Village to West Lafayette to Peru line.  South of that line, amounts look to be a trace to 0.1".

Watch for a couple slick spots Sunday morning as low drop into the 20s & some snow showers continue until about 10 a.m. in the viewing area.

After milder weather with 40s, then 50s this week, next potential of widespread precipitation would be next Saturday with rainfall.  It looks pretty windy with that system, too with perhaps even a few isolated storms in our southern counties embedded in the rain.

South Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi to Alabame show potential of some severe risk.  Parameters show up to Slight Risk potential there.

Some showers are also possible late Sunday-Monday with gusty winds.

Arctic blast will follow.

It still looks like potential big Nor'Easter for South & East Coast in the November 28-early December 1.

This system looks like another huge one with light snow as far north as our area & snowfall deep into the southern U.S.  The last one produced snow down to Houston, measurable snow to central Louisiana.  This one could get snow to northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama & even a few flakes possibly as far south as the Florida/Alabama line.

Here, looks like we could see less than 1" of accumulation.

After that, we need to watch two storm systems, one in Texas & another in Arizona.  Given the cold pattern, we have to watch for wintry precipitation here in the December 4-6 time frame.

Interestingly, after some potential winter weather impacts from that system, notice how there is yet another trend to blow up a big Nor'Easter on the East Coast.  Impressive early snow season will continue on the East Coast!  Note Arctic high over the Dakotas extending south & eastward.

Cold should moderate briefly after December 10.  Note surge of above normal temperatures in the Plains & below to well-below normal temperatures eroding in our area, moving towards the east & southeast.

This storm system around December 11-12 could be pretty substantial with severe weather in the Southeast U.S. (with very warm temperatures), significant Plains snowfall & rainfall here.

One surge of Arctic air should follow, then snowfall is possible near December 16-17.  Why would I show a map like this so far out?  Because there is so much good analog agreement on this pattern.  Blocking ridges Alaska to Pacific Northwest & over Scandinavia to Greenland & very cold air with strong baroclinic zone along the Gulf Coast all support pretty substantial snowfall episode.

Record breaking cold, the likes not seen so early in the year since 1995, even perhaps like 1989, is possible after this storm with widespread lows below zero by December 18-19.  Should this occur, record cold could be the most widespread for that time of year since the 1989 Arctic outbreak with freezing to south Florida.

This would be one of those so-called "Polar Vortex" scenarios.

Note wave in northern Mexico/south Texas with another one over Colorado/Utah around December 20.

Those could result in a storm that either dumps accumulating snowfall on our area, or accumulating snowfall deep into the southern U.S., or even both, just prior to Christmas.  It could be a year that many areas see a White Christmas.

However, after that, there is good consistency that temperatures will warm & may even reach above normal somewhere in the December 27-31 period with foggy, gray conditions & eventually some rainfall.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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A few rain, snow, sleet showers in the forecast with gusty winds.
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