November 17, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Nov 17, 2019 11:38 AM
Updated: Nov 17, 2019 1:28 PM

A few isolated to spotty rain/snow showers to rain showers are possible at times this later today-evening-tonight to Monday & Tuesday.  Skies look generally mostly cloudy.

Amounts of rainfall should run less than 0.10" total to Tuesday.

After highs 39-44 today, lows tonight 31-35, highs tomorrow should run 41-46 with 45-51 Tuesday.

Big warm-up still on track for mid to late week with rain arriving.

Rain is likely Thursday-Thursday night.

High Wednesday should run 51-56, followed by 54-60 Thursday with gray skies & strong southwest winds.

If we somehow get a break in the rain or the rainfall is delayed, I think 58-65 is attainable.

Secondary storm behind it looks to stay south of our area, but may bring severe weather Texas to the Gulf Coast.

Friday looks colder at 38-46 (with partly cloudy skies), followed by 35-40 Saturday (with mostly cloudy skies & a few flurries/snow showers with gusty winds) & 39-44 Sunday with sunshine & some clouds.

0.30-0.60" of rainfall is possible from Thursday-Thursday night system.

Big warm surge will return as we get closer to & reach Thanksgiving.  50s & 60s are still possible with rain, a few storms & strong southerly winds.

Negatively-tilted system may bring severe weather Texas to the Carolinas.

We will see how far north severe risk could get.

Highs 60-65 are possible in our area with 70 possible in southwestern Illinois.  A spurt of 50s may reach northern Lower Michigan.

0.60-1.25" rainfall could occur with the near Thanksgiving storm system.

Warm pattern should dominate right into early December.  Note the warmth & rain that comes in around December 3.  50s & 60s are possible, while the West has troughiness (with heavy rain & snow) & unseasonably cold weather.

0.70-1.25" rainfall could occur with this first early December system.

This is impressive warmth from Minnesota to the Deep South, while the West is unseasonably cold with highs in the 50s in L.A. & San Diego.

Record warm overnight lows are possibe Iowa to Missouri & western Illinois on the night of December 2-3 with 50s to 60.  Again, those are LOW TEMPERATURES. 

Surge of warmth overspreads our area with the rainfall ahead of the cold front.

No doubt it will cool down behind the front but nothing big (it appears) for early December standards.  Much colder air stays in the West.

Domination of upper trough West, upper ridging Southeast to off Southeast coast means overall warmer & wetter than normal pattern here through early December.

Given the sheer number of storm systems it is possible that we may begin to see substantial rises in the Wabash by mid-month the potential of flood stage being reached.

Each system may feature 3-4 times the typical moisture able to squeeze out at any given time in our area.

Farmers, if you want the corn & soybean crop out of the field before quality rapidly decreases, the window is now before fields become mud pits & pond with water.  You may have to wait until ground freezes solid in latter December to get out into the field & we may have snow to deal with then if the crop is not out before Thanksgiving.

Note the Precipitable Water anomalies in one of these early December systems:

Much colder weather should arrive in latter December with increasing risk of a winter storm.

This precipitation pattern of below normal precipitation in California & above normal in Pacific Northwest to Texas shows active Polar branch of jet.  Storms will blast Washington & Oregon, wobble around California/Arizona ridge & then dive into Colorado & re-organize as they move into Oklahoma & Texas.

Meanwhile, subtropical jet will be active pumping deep moisture from Mississippi to Alabama, Kentucky Ohio & all over the East.

So, Polar & Subtropical jet split in the West, then converge over Arkansas & Tennessee with the COLD air & upper trough in the central & East.

This is a great pattern for a winter storm here with mixed precipitation New York to Kentucky with snow here.

We will monitor, but now long-range models agree with my analog data that has been showing up for a month for latter December.

We can see how the pattern may evolve here as cold drop southeastward, Cali ridge develos & Colorado & Texas Panhandle  to Arkansas serve as nursery beds for storm organization.

Bermuda high may tend to put storm track in sweet spot (just offshore) in the cold air here for winter storm risk.

One or two "Polar Vortex" events are possible by mid-January like last winter with near/record cold & extreme wind chills.  This would tend to follow a couple of winter storms.  Stratospheric warming event (which precedes it) should get going on this side of the North Pole in mid-December.

After the "Polar Vortex" outbreaks, analog suggests major thaw & massive warm-up for a bit.  Analog suggests -24 to -18 to 55-60 in a matter of 2-3 days.  This is based on a mix oif date from low-solar, MJO phase, NAO/AO & PNA phase, current SST alignment trend, PDO, neutral ENSO phase & CO2 concentration dating back 120 years.

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