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November 16, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

The latest Long Ranger is up!

Posted: Nov 16, 2020 9:26 PM
Updated: Nov 16, 2020 10:19 PM

Peak measured gusts from Sunday have been plotted!  The highest non-t'storm gust measured was 60 mph at Remington.  The highest t'storm gust occurred in Fulton County with 64 mph gust just north of Athens as line of storms raced through Sunday morning.  Strong winds (some severe) & reports of pea-sized hail were received in northern Miami & eastern Fulton counties.

It was a nice Monday with highs 50-57, though rather breezy.

It will warm up this week to near record warm levels by Friday-Saturday.

Friday & Saturday night's lows look near/record warm.

Friday's record high is 74 set in 1942.

Saturday's record high is 72 in 1990. 

Sunday's record is 72 in 1931.

The low of 55 Saturday night is 3 degrees from the record warm low of 58 set in 1934.  The low of 60 forecast for Saturday night would beat the record warm low of 56 set in 1913, 1927, 1934 & 2010.

Line of showers/storms is likely Sunday near midday with isolated severe weather risk.

More warmth & some severe risk is possible near/after Thanksgiving as well.  Monday night looks like the coldest night through Thanksgiving.

The second half of November average very warm for the time of year with above normal rainfall.

There is the risk for some severe weather & also high wind event days & some near/record warmth is possible at times.

Warm eastern 2/3, cold western 1/3 of the Lower 48:

Western & Northwestern U.S. is cold, snowy & wet, while the Plains are drier.  However, above normal rainfall will dominate our area & through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes to Northeast.  The Deep South looks drier.

Looking ahead to December it looks warmer & wetter than normal with near/record warmth at times & elevated risk of some severe weather.

December temperature anomalies (there will likely be more cold in the Far West & Northwest than what this image below via CFSV2 model shows, though I agree with that it shows over the eastern & southern U.S. with the impressive warmth):

December precipitation anomalies:

January will not be as warm, but still above normal with above normal rainfall.  I actually think snowfall could end up near normal, but I really think this is the only month that will have decent amount.

It also appears that there will be an elevated risk of severe weather & flooding as well as potential of a day or two of record warmth.

The cold, snowy, rough winter weather should be over the Northwest U.S., Northern Rockies & Northern Plains.  There will be some brutally cold weather in those areas.

We may only have one night that it gets down to 0 or a little below.

January temperature anomalies:

January precipitation anomalies:

January & February feature elevated risk of ice storm or at least a substantial icing event, per analog analysis.

Speaking of February, it looks warmer than January with same weather pattern.  A record high temperature or two could occur, along with continued elevated risk of a cool-season severe weather event & flooding.

Snowfall currently looks below normal.

Looks like early start to spring with unusually warm weather in March with higher than normal risk of severe weather & flooding.  March looks like the wettest month of the November-March period with potential of double the normal rainfall.

Snowfall looks below normal.

April looks warmer, wetter than normal & stormy with narrow window to get some crops out in an otherwise month of fieldwork downtime.

May looks warmer & wetter & stormy, while potential of widespread drought in Summer with above normal temperatures (& 100 to 100s).  Subsoil moisture reserves will be key & it will be important to not rush the growing season by working ground too wet.  That will pose big issue in summer when it dries.

There is also greater tha normal potential of a serial derecho or "Ring of Fire" derecho to impact the area (per analog) in Summer 2021.

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