November 15, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Gradual Warm-Up with More & More Clouds.....

Posted: Nov 15, 2019 2:44 PM
Updated: Nov 15, 2019 5:13 PM

Lows this morning ran 15-23.  Where skies cleared the most & the longest, it was the coldest with heavy frost, patches of black ice & some fog.

Areas that kept the clouds the longest were 20 to the 20s.

It is 35-41 over the viewing area north to southwest as of 3:30 p.m.

It is overcast over the northeast 2/3 of the area, but mostly sunny in the south & partly cloudy in the west.

The greater amount of cloud cover is working southward.

So, clouds will be on the increase in the southern counties through evening.

Overnight, went for a generic partly cloudy wording & did the same for Saturday after back door cold front passes through from the northeast/east, then washes out over far eastern Illinois/our western border.

With lows tonight 21-25, highs tomorrow should run 32-39.

East-northeast to east winds of 12-26 mph will occur, keeping wind chills in the 20s all day.

The back door front (clouds coming in from the east & east-northeast:

Meanwhile, major Nor'Easter with winds of up to hurricane force will batter Eastern North Carolina.

Storm will push Arctic front back to the north & throw warmer, oceanic air over the top of the cold.

Result will be icing over New England.  Given wind, tree & powerline damage is likely.

Meanwhile, it will be a wind-driven cold rain farther southward with risk of coastal flooding.

A few rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow showers here Sunday night will dive way to isolated showers Monday & a few Tuesday with lots of clouds.

More widespread rainfall is likely later Thursday to part of Friday with milder temperatures, but lots of clouds.

Colder shot comes in next weekend with a few snow showers & flurries with 30s, followed by much warmer weather the following week.

Rain will also pass.

Temperatures should be above normal with that rain.

Trend continues for nice, mild spurts in early December with above normal precipitation. However, note the Arctic air looming with significant temperature anomalies northwest & north of our area.  One false move & we tap it early.

Above normal precip should occur first Oregon & Washington to California & through the Intermountain West & Desert Southwest before translating to Texas then northeastward into our area (just waiting for the push south with a pattern change).

Colder weather still looks reasonable latter December & some significant cold in January.  Thinking early to mid as stratospheric warming event & weakening of Polar Vortex gets underway in December.  Full-on "Polar Vortex" possible as we start 2020!

Article Comments

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Mild with Rain by Sunday Night
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