We are still on-track for a winter of extremes with lots of wind & "Polar Vortex" cold outbreaks with above normal snowfall & overall above normal precipitation. I still think a couple 70-degree temperature swings in a couple of days will occur-like last year.
Analog is still very similar to winters of 2013-14 & 2018-19.
After a warm October, end of the month to first of November turned unseasonably cold. Then we shot up nearly 50 degrees, before this historic Arctic outbreak arrived. Between highs to 60 & the wind chills of -12, there was a 72-degree drop in "feels-like" temperatures over a two-day period recently.
Like last year, we already have some unseasonable snowfalls under our belt.
At this time last year, we had already had at least 9 days with at least a trace of snowfall & around 3" for the fall total. So far this fall, we have had 3 days with at least a trace of snow & 3.4" for the total.
After sun off & on for the viewing area part of today, low cloud deck has become entrenched as of 4:30 p.m.
Clearing trend will occur tonight, but it is tricky & challenging to determine how quickly we will clear as winds go light to calm.
My thoughts are that the western & northwest halves of the area have the best chance of going completely clear.
In those areas, heavy frost, patchy black ice & light fog may develop.
This will result in lows varying from 15-23 over the area (warmer where low clouds hang on).
I went for a generic partly cloudy wording tomorrow given potential of mostly sunny period, then partly to mostly cloudy period in part of the area, then another mostly sunny period. Went for highs 35-38 with generally a west wind at 8-16 mph.
20 to the 20s Friday night look reasonable with partly cloudy skies.
Change today is back door cold front swinging in from New England Friday night-early Saturday, turning wind to east & east-northeast at 12-26 mph. There will certainly be a cold edge to the air!
Cold bleeds down the western slopes of the Appalachians & down the glacial till & lake plains from Ontario & far western New York & northwestern Pennsylvania to Indiana.
It stops in our far southwestern counties to far eastern Illinois.
Then, another lobe of it bleeds down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, resulting in colder weather from Atlanta & Columbia to Washington.
Note the powerful offshore [of North Carolina] storm developing in extreme temperature gradient.
After one round of heavy snow in the Northeast all the way to the coast earlier in the week, this storm could bring Northeast ice & snow if it tracks far enough to the northwest as a "Nor'Easter"-type storm.
We should "recycle" some of that cold air from that backdoor cold front, keeping us cool to cold Sunday-Monday with considerable low cloudiness as warm air tries to override that colder air as the surface.
This may result in a few isolated showers Monday.
A cold front may bring a few scattered showers Tuesday, offsetting rapid warming with lots of dreary low clouds!
Thursday look windy & warmer with some showers late.
Thursday night or part of Friday look the warmest of next week with potential showers.
A cold surge should come in next weekend with a few snow showers & 30s, interspersed between two warm-ups.
Following next weekend, looks warmer with wetter pattern.
Warmest weather now to mid-December tends to be shaping up in early December with temperatures as high as the 60s. We will still monitor the around Thanksgiving period to see if we can reach that.
Warm, wet periods will be interspersed with spurts of chill, though. It will be a 50s/60s to 30s for highs back & forth swing.
Arctic air recharge will be upstream & waiting for the push downward for latter December.
In this cold, blocky pattern late December to January, weakening Polar Vortex should support a couple January 2019-like Arctic outbreaks. Best potential is for these all-out Arctic plunges is early- to mid-January.
Long-term negative NAO/AO, positive PNA for that period with stratospheric warming episode in December (which precedes outbreaks) & cold phase MJO projection all support a couple rounds of potentially brutal near/record cold with a couple significant winter storms in most likely early- to mid-January.
Low solar is a substantial component to the coldness of the past few winters with us getting down to -20.
We have seen on Arctic outbreak here so far with a record-breaking one now headed for East Asia.