Snowfall totals from lastnight 6 p.m. to 12 a.m. were highly variable with the highest totals in the northwestern half of the viewing area.
These are totals from NWS COOP & CoCoRAHs observers & a few WLFI spotters.
Note the band of snow cover from the Texas Panhandle to Indiana!
Skies here are mostly sunny in our western areas, but still cloudy in the eastern half. Clearing should continue west to east today & any lake effect snow showers will continue to wind down over our far northeastern areas.
Arctic air will bring freeze all the way to northern Mexico tonight! Temperatures could drop into the 20s to the Rio Grande! Right now, temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s in the Houston area & only in the low to mid 40s in far south Texas. It is 38 with a cold rain & a wind chill of 29 right now at Beaumont/Port Arthur, Texas.
This, with very warm Gulf of Mexico (it is still only November) is a cradle or anchor for cyclogenesis (storm system development). This is how big storms form along the East Coast as very cold air & the warm Gulf Stream create a nursery to develop Nor'Easters.
In this case, an Inside Runner type storm will form in the northern Gulf & begin to accelerate northward.
Note the cyclogenesis & how it brings wintry precipitation deep into the South. Also note how Arctic air even bleeds into the Appalachians & Piedmont, bringing freezing rain & sleet to western North Carolina & Virginia. Some freezing rain could make it as far south as northeast Georgia & far northwestern South Carolina.
This looks like a Thursday 7 a.m. to Friday 1 a.m. duration event.
Looks like it may begin as mixed freezing rain, sleet & snow, then transition to all snow.
However, note how the snow returns weaken a lot as new cyclogenesis occurs on the East Coast as Nor'Easter develops. This will rob our system of the needed moisture & energy. That will be transferred to the Nor'Easter. I call this mid-latitude cyclone piracy! This is sort of like stream piracy in geology where one stream carving a new channel ends up channeling to take water away from another.
Now is your Inside Runner track that would normal bring heavy, significant snowfall to the area. However, with this energy transfer, it will greatly cut totals of snowfall.
Areas that see the most snowfall will have the system BEFORE the energy transfer occurs. Those areas could be western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri & southern Illinois. It is looking more likely that those areas will see significant snowfall accumulation & Winter Storm Watches may be hoisted up there by tonight or tomorrow. Winter Storm Watches will also likely be hoisted for areas southeast & east to northeast of us closer to the East Coast for significant ice & snowfall accumulations.
As for us, it is still a bit unclear as to how much snow & ice will occur. I have no doubt that there will be accumulations, but depending on when the energy transfer occurs will determine amounts. I should be able to pin down some number tonight.
So, confidence is HIGH on impactful wintry precipitation, but LOW on exact amounts yet.
Note how the warmth tries to move eastward Friday, but this system & its snow cover will put the kibosh on that!
It will be warmer Friday with melting, but the nice 50s to 60s will stay west & southwest of our area.
After 38-45 Friday, a clipper may bring a few rain & snow showers Saturday night after sun Saturday.
After warm-up with rain, Arctic air cometh at the end of November! Check out the nose of it approaching at the end of the month! This will last right into early December!
- November 13, 3:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: More Snowfall Ahead
- November 6, 6:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Peak Measured Gusts Today & a Look at the Cold & Some Snowfall Ahead
- November 8, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update: Tracking Minor Snowfall & Unseasonably Cold Weather
- November 1, 4:30 PM Weather Update
- November 11, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 11, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 12, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 22, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 27, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 9, 5:30 PM Weather Forecast Update