November 13, 12:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Warmer weather ahead.

Posted: Nov 13, 2019 12:20 AM
Updated: Nov 13, 2019 1:07 AM

Between our highs in the teens back in early March (coldest start to March since 1960) & the earliest high temperature below 19, we have seen the shortest span between our last highs in the teens & first highs in the teens for the year on record (records back to 1879).

Monster storm moving into southwest Alaska is driving warmth way north, which is driving bitter cold way south here.

Widespread snowpack over Canada, the northern U.S. & all over the Midwest is helping intensify the cold.

Very similar SST pattern November 12, 2018 vs. November 11, 2019:

We saw a bitter cold wave in November with multiple snowfalls & snow in October, then mild weather late November & for part of December (though one blast of Arctic air in early December).

So, extremes with more bitter cold & snow than warmth for winter as a whole.

One thing to note (outside of SST) low solar tends to lead to a more negative NAO pattern, driving cold into the central & eastern U.S.

This has helped to lead to some harsh winters in the past 11 years & some very wet, cool springs & wet summers.  Only 2010-11, 2011-12, 2015-16 have been warmer winters (since 2008).

Greenhouse gases are offsetting the cooling on the planet as a whole, but it seems obvious that there is an impact from low solar.

It also seems that the low solar cooling seems to be in a battle against gas-driven warming & thus ocean warming, causing extremes.

Last fall-winter-spring was extreme & we will have a similar extreme pattern 2019-20.

Some scattered snow showers are possible (best potential north with dusting to thin, "cat track" coating possible) Wednesday late evening to the overnight with even a few patches of light freezing drizzle as temps moderate.

Temperatures will moderate, but remain cold Thursday-Sunday.

Note the arduous process of eroding away the Arctic air without the approach of a very strong storm system.

Bursts of warmth will be interspersed with cool downs, but mild pattern overall will evolve right through Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, the unusually warm, dry Far West will turn wet, cold & even snowy.

The best potential of any rainfall next week is late Thursday or Friday.

A few embedded storms are possible with warm temperatures & strong southwest winds.

After that, widespread rainfall does not return again until 26-27th & again 28th-29th.  It looks mild though.

Mild, wetter pattern should dominate early December.

Above normal rain & snowfall will occur in the Far West & Intermountain West with band of above normal rainfall from Texas to our area.

Deep South & East Coast may end up drier than normal due to warm Southeast ridge.

First cold surge will likely get in here just after December mid-point.

Another big cold surge should occur as get to within roughly 4 days of Christmas.

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