November 13, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the weather low-down for now to December based on the latest data!

Posted: Nov 13, 2020 11:04 AM
Updated: Nov 13, 2020 12:11 PM

We should be clear long enough tonight with delay in the southeast winds to lead to a good frost & lows 24-29.  As southeast wind commences, some clouds increase from south to north & warm-air advection just begins to develop, temperatures should rise to 27-33 by 7 a.m.

Good news!  Any scattered showers should not arrive in the viewing area until after 12 p.m. Saturday while it turns cloudy in the morning from south to north as warm front lifts northward.

Also, coverage of the showers should only run 30-35%, then increase after 6 p.m.

Temperatures should reach 46-52 by late afternoon with strong southeast winds becoming south-southeast at 20-40 mph.

Temperatures will continue to rise Saturday night with the wind becoming due south at 25-40 mph.  By midnight, temperatures should be 53-59 over the area.

Numerous scattered showers & storms should blossom over the area on plume of very strong warm air advection & strong +60 mph low-level jet (band of wind at 5,000').

Corridor of some severe weather risk will develop from Arkansas to eastern Missouri & western Illinois as a broken line of storms forms along the cold front.

Rainfall coverage will increase to 70% by 12 a.m.

Highs by early Sunday should reach 57-63 over the area with the strong south winds (south winds 25-43 mph).  Numerous scattered showers & storms will pass, followed by a final broken line of showers & storms with the cold front in the early morning hours.  An isolated severe storm is possible in corridor of absolutely screaming +70 mph low-level jet & +110 mph upper jet streak.

Sharp clearing trend should follow with sunny skies developing Sunday morning with southwest to west-southweast winds gusting 35-50 mph.  Low clouds should pivot in from the northwest Sunday midday-afternoon for the northern & northeastern 75% of the area.  West-southwest to west winds will still be gusting 35-50 mph before decreasing to 30-40 mph gusts late in the day.

After those early morning highs of 57-63, we should drop to 50-55 by late morning, then fall to 45-50 by 5 p.m.

All of next week looks dry with gradual warm-up from highs of 54 Monday to 51 Tuesday, 53 Wednesday to 63 Thursday & 67 Friday.  Frost to freezing is likely Sunday, Monday & Tuesday nights with lows 20s to lower 30s.  By Friday night, lows should only drop to the 50s.

Wind gusts 40-50 mph from the southwest, then west to northwest Saturday to Saturday night will occur with near-record warm high near 70.  Narrow squall line is possible along strong cold front with risk of isolated severe storms in low CAPE, high-shear environment.

The better severe risk is Iowa to Missouri & northern Illinois it appears at the moment, however, where the tongue of higher CAPE will be pulled farther northward.

Brief shot of much colder air should race in, but we may be near/record warmth with risk of some severe storms from a squall line around November 27-28 with highs around 70.

Early December looks warmer than normal & even mid- to late-December looks warmer than normal:.  Meanwhile the Northwest U.S. to Northern Rockies should be colder, wetter than normal with above normal snowfall.

Multiple days/nights of near/record warmth are possible with a couple of days of severe weather risk possible.

Rainfall looks to run above normal.

January-March looks warmer than normal over the east & southeast half of the Lower 48, while the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains & western Great Lakes look colder & snowier than normal.

Floods will be an issue in the Pacific Northwest while blizzards will be threat Cascades to northern Minnesota.  Avalanche danger will become quite high in the Cascades & Northern Rockies.

January still looks like our coldest, snowiest month, though it will still likely average above normal.  There looks to be a real lack of snow in December & February, but January may end up with normal snowfall.

In both January & February, the risk of an icing or ice storm event is there given the tight gradient between the much colder air trying to bleed south & all of the warmth in the East & Southeast.

Analog shows that an ana-front situation is most likely with near/record warmth & some t'storms, followed by a rapid temperature drop (with strong north winds) to the 20s & 30s with rain & some more t'storms.  This would result in a band of ice (potentially damaging) from Kansas & Missouri to central Illinois & our viewing area to northwestern Ohio.  Areas of flash flooding would also occur.  The potential of this is quite elevated January-February.

The January-March period does look quite a bit wetter than normal with elevated flood risk & elevated cool-season severe weather risk for the period.

Heads up for farmers!  The spring looks much wetter than normal, but analog data of similar years shows an early-season window for planting & April & then a Memorial Day to very early June window for widespread planting.

There is a much-elevated severe weather event to outbreak risk through spring with higher risk for tornadoes.  The frequency of severe weather looks the highest since 1999, 2010 & 2011 springs.

Another alert is the increasing risk for a widespread drought next summer with intense heat in July & August.  Spring to early Summer DOES NOT look like 2012, but July & August do.  Temperatures hit as high as 97 this summer (highest temperatures since the record heat of Memorial Day weekend 2018, which was hottest May weather since 1911) & there is much higher risk of 100 or greater next summer.  Looks like the first 100 or greater since 2012.

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Cold night, then drier, milder regime.
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