November 13, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Impressive Arctic Blast......But Gradually Turning Warmer....Cold Down the Road Again.....Significant Arctic Outbreak in January?

Posted: Nov 13, 2019 9:17 PM
Updated: Nov 13, 2019 10:57 PM

This is one impressive cold wave for the time of year!  Single digits to Tennessee, some teens to central Mississippi & Alabama, teens across the state of Arkansas with lower 20s to southern Louisiana, records were smashed this morning.  Most of them in the South dated back to the 1911 outbreak.  20s reached all the way to the warm waters of the Gulf Coast.

Note how even some oil platform stations offshore dropped into the 30s.

Massive storm winding down over Alaska's Aleutians has been a force to trigger the historic cold outbreak (along unusually high amount of snow pack).

This is storm has led to big warm ridge in the West (68 Winnemucca, Nevada; 58 Mountain Home, Idaho; 61 today Salt Lake City; 52 Calgary, Alberta; 47, Edmonton, Alberta; 52 Cody, Wyoming; 52 Great Falls, Montana (after record-snowy Fall); 61 Colorado Springs; 63 Fort Collins, Colorado with 70s & 80s across California.  70 reached southern Oregon, as well.

Effects have been opposite east of the Rockies with 100s of records broken.  Even today, unusually cold highs of 45 occurred at Monterrey & Matamoros, Mexico.

This has been a mainstay of talk for a while.

This was a graphic from November 1 talking about typhoons, mid-latitude cyclone blowing up from the remnants & the ensuing cold wave.

So after a record warm start to October here, then warm weather until first freeze just after mid-October, we saw the big post-Halloween cold snap, then a warm-up (some to 60), then this big, major cold snap.

The two cold snaps happened so quickly after warmth that some trees couldn't even completely change color before the foliage became crisp & frozen.  Many trees simply didn't have enough time to put to work the processes to shed leaves after such warmth in September & October.

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Tonight, we have some spotty snow, mainly north.  We have had a few flurries here at the station.

As we saturate, can't rule out a couple patches of light freezing drizzle following any spotty snow.

Far north may see a quick dusting of snow in places.

Some clearing may occur in parts of the area late with lows 18-22 & wind chills near 10.

Pretty chill weather overall with no good chance of rain until either late Thursday or Friday of next week.  I am on the fence about inserting potential of a few showers Tuesday.  I still might do that, but I need a couple more model runs to analyze before I do that.

It will turn windy & warmer.  Should see the warmest day of next week either Thursday or Friday with the potential of some places getting to 60.

Either late next Thursday or Friday:

Warm & very windy conditions still look on-track for just before & around Thanksgiving.

Strong storm in the Plains will funnel 60s northeastward & showers & storms will eventually fill in over our area as center of storm migrates toward Minnesota.

Potential is there for record warm overnight lows in the 50s with highs 62-65.  Record highs for the period are 67-73.

Reservoir of warmth will be just south of us just after Thanksgiving.

We may cool a bit, but warmth may surge northeastward as we exit November & move into early December.

Wetter than normal should be with us through early December.

Much colder air builds & makes the move southward, getting here most likely after December's mid point.  Stay tuned.

There are some early signs of a similar "Polar Vortex" episode like last winter in here in the first half of January coming in.

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