November 12, 9 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is in & here is your latest update.

Posted: Nov 12, 2020 4:02 PM
Updated: Nov 12, 2020 9:59 PM

Looks like we did have a 57 mph wind gust measured at the Purdue Airport from the squall line the other night & an observer near Pine Village measured a gust to 57 mph as well.  Gust at our WLFI ob site was 51 mph. 

Non-t'storm gradient winds ahead of the line on the afternoon of November 10 peaked at 48 mph in the viewing area.

Where that decent CAPE overlaid the high shear, we saw gusts +80 mph & at least 13 tornado reports!

Here are the measured gusts that reached or exceeded 40 mph with the squall line:

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After the warmth, this morning saw lows of 23-29 with areas of dense freezing fog & heavy frost.

Highs today reached 50-56 with lots of sunshine!

After a couple isolated showers early Friday morning, we should clear with highs only 41-46.  However, northwest wind should decrease from 14-25 mph to 9-17 mph in the afternoon-evening.

We should drop to 28-32 tomorrow night, then rise to 34-37 as clouds increasing & wind turns to the southeast & increases to 5-15 mph.

With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies Saturday, there will be a scattering of showers.  They my begin as a brief bout of sleet Saturday morning if the precipitation get in here by 10 a.m.

Winds will be strong all day from the southeast, then south-southeast at 15-27 mph & with temperatures only reaching 42-47 by 5 p.m., it will be a rather raw, chilly day with those pesky showers around.

Temperatures will then rise to 48-56 by 11:50 p.m. & some scattered storms may develop with in the scattering of showers as very pronounced belt of strong warm air advection & strengthening low-level jet occurs.  We should reach 55-60 by 3 a.m. with south winds 15-30 mph.

Thoughts are that scattered showers & storms will occur Sunday morning-midday with some sun appearing at times with perhaps even multiple broken lines with an isolated severe storm possible (higher severe risk east & south of us Sunday afternoon-evening) & temperatures 60-65.  Winds should be strong from the south to southwest at 20-35 mph.

Then, rainfall should end & we see a distinct dry slot Sunday afternoon with strong west winds to 40 mph (possibly up to 45 mph).  Skies should clear nicely with temperatures 55-60.

Low clouds should pivot in for part of the area early Sunday night, then exit with lows 30-35.

Strong west then northwest winds should decrease to 8-15 mph.

Stay tuned for any changes to timing of the showers & storms in this forecast.

Next week looks good!  It will be dry with a warming trend.  We could reach 65-70 by Friday & 68-73 next Saturday.

Thoughts are that a strong cold front will pass around Sunday of next weekend.  Gradient winds ahead of & behind the front may gust 40-50 mph, first from the south-southwest & then west to northwest behind the front.  Ahead of it, it looks very warm for the time of year.

Potential is there for some severe risk, though instability looks lacking with very low CAPE, high shear situation.

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Logansport
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Warming up with plenty of sunshine!
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