November 12, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Record cold, then big warm-up down the road.

Posted: Nov 12, 2019 1:32 PM
Updated: Nov 12, 2019 5:06 PM

Snowfall totals varied 1.2-5" per area spotters & observers.  Highest totals of +3" clustered in our far northern, northeastern, eastern & southern areas.  Much of the area saw 2-3".

Final snowfall totals map (NWS COOP, CoCoRaHs observers, trained spotters & public measured totals):

Lows this morning (5 to 14) & minimum wind chills (-12 to 3):

This is an impressive Arctic outbreak with the lowest November wind chills in our area since this great 1991 outbreak (with the epic blizzard in Minnesota).

In all areas east of the Rockies, only south-central & southern Florida will be immune to the near/record cold air.

Wintry mix has occurred as far south as far south Texas & northern Mexico this morning.  This would be a feat in January, let alone mid-November!

Snow was reported from Austin & San Antonio, Texas to Harlingen & Brownsville, Texas.  Matamoros, Mexico saw brief sleet & snow.

As of 1 p.m., it is 36 with a wind chill of 25 at Corpus Christi, Texas & Matamorous has 37 with light rain.  San Fernando, Mexico, deep in the state of Tamaulipas, has 40.  Llera, even farther south has 45 with north wind at 32 mph with gusts to 47 mph as "Blue Norther" cold outbreak races southward in Mexico.

Buoy 42360 in near the middle of the Gulf went from 81 late afternoon yesterday to 51 now.

Buoy 42395 just saw cold front pass with drop of temperature to 69 after 81 with gusts currently at 42 mph.

Buoy 42002, approximately 200 miles off the coast of Brownsville has seen the cold front just blast through.  North winds are gusting to 40 mph & temperature is down to 65.

Brownsville Airport observations:

Matamoros Airport..........84 (with dew point making it feel more like 88) yesterday......30s today (Note:  7:40 p.m. Eastern to 7:08 a.m. Eastern observations missing):

It is even more dramatic at Mexico's Ciudad Victoria Airport with temperature drop from 88 to 43 (Note:  8:40 p.m. Eastern to 5:02 a.m. Eastern observations are missing):

Temperatures fall to 4-11 tonight, then begin to tise some with commencement of light southwest to south-southwest wind after 2 a.m.

Wind chills will run -7 to 2.

Clouds increase Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions from southwest (to 30 mph at times), which will result in some blowing/drifting snow.

Highs will reach 27-31, followed by a rise to 29-33 Wednesday evening-early overnight (then a fall to 20-26 by early Thursday morning).

Wind chills Wednesday will run 10-20.

Some snow showers may reach mainly our northern areas Wednesday night & a few patches of light freezing drizzle may occur farther southward.

A dusting to coating of snowfall is possible, mainly north with a trace of freezing drizzle in other parts of the area.

Mostly cloudy skies dominate Thursday with west-southwest winds 10-15 mph, followed by clearing skies & diminishing winds with frostly conditions developing with some patchy freezing fog Thursday night-early Friday morning.

Lows of 10-18 are likely.

Mostly sunny skies Friday will give way to partly cloudy skies for Saturday, then mostly cloudy skies Sunday.

It will be breezy at times:

Friday:  West to west-northwest wind 10 mph

Saturday:  East 15-25 mph.

Sunday:  SE 10 mph.

It may be mostly cloudy to cloudy & breezy, but it will warm up nicely Monday & Tuesday.

Some 60s are possible in the area by Thursday & Friday.  Some showers & a few t'storms are possible Friday, November 22.

After a brief cool-down, some 60s are possible Tuesday, November 26 with overnight lows only in the 50s (near/record warm)

Couple warm surges interspersed with cool-downs next week to November 25.

Then a big warm surge just before & around Thanksgiving.

More unseasonable warmth floods in after Thanksgiving again.

Looks like a lot of nice, windy days, but there will be some instances of some showers/storms.

This strong storm system & front is focused to pass on November 22, which will bring a short stint of chill.

The West is cold & the central & East is warm in early December.

It is wetter than normal California to Texas northeastward to our area.

From Texas to Tennessee to the Carolinas, there will be bouts of severe weather late November through the early half of December. 

One substantial one is in the offing.

We will see how far north any severe risk gets.  Remember last year how we saw a late November squall line after bitter cold & snow?  1996 saw an outbreak over central & southern Indiana after cold wave.  In 2013, we saw snow, then tornado outbreak 4 days later with temperatures surging to 70.  In 2014, cold & snow, followed by storms & high wind event.  In 1991, we had a record cold outbreak in early November, then a severe weather episode in latter November with winds up to 100 mph south of us in Hendricks County.

Cold should follow in latter December with winter storm risk.

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