November 11, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on snowfall potential, Arctic Blast & eventual big warm-up.

Posted: Nov 11, 2018 5:50 PM
Updated: Nov 11, 2018 6:12 PM

Confidence in this forecast has increased to medium, but it still is not high yet.

Some patches of some unsubstantial light rain/sleet/snow are possible tomorrow afternoon.  A good chunk of it will be virga or evaporating on the way down, but some may make it to the surface.

Late in the day, after 4 p.m., we are fair game for light snow to begin to overspread our western counties & this will work eastward.  With evaporative cooling & continued pull of Arctic air southeastward, temperatures will drop from 34-38 to 31-33.

Snow is likely tomorrow night.  Slick areas on roads are possible in the night to Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the 21-25 range.  Brisk winds may blow what snow there is around some.

This will be the first event to test our winter driving skills, despite insignificant accumulations. 

Tuesday itself will feature some clearing skies, but lake effect snow will be over our northern areas from Jasper to Fulton counties to as far south as part of White, Cass & Miami counties.  We will monitor to make sure if it gets any farther south.

Unusually cold weather will be in places with highs only 26-31 with wind chills 18-24.

So, here is the area of snow..............then some of the lake effect.

It is unclear where exactly the 1-2" band will set up & if there will be a +2" band.  However, given the latest data, this is the best current forecast regarding the system & lake effect snowfall.  Again, be prepared for our first travel impacts of the year.

There will definitely be a +2" band over Missouri to Illinois, but it is a question whether that gets in here.

Be prepared for tweaks to this map.

This is one huge storm system & we will be on the northern edge of it.  If we could really tap into the deep tropical moisture that will be present farther southward, we would be in for an all-out winter storm with significant snowfall.  That does not look to be the case, but it is snow & cold nonetheless.

Not only will it re enforce the Arctic air in, but some snow pack will enchance the cold.  Also, a secondary storm system or potential secondary Nor'Easter, will put the kibosh on any big warm-up until after November 18. 

Then, as we enter a very warm, wet phase of the MJO, temperatures will soar into the 50s & 60s.  Some data event suggests storms & temps to the upper 60s in the November 18-25 period.  Widespread 1-3.5" rains are also possible for that period.

After that, November 26-December 10 looks COLD with more opportunties for accumulating snowfall.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 33068

Reported Deaths: 2068
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9524558
Lake3494175
Cass15897
Allen141966
St. Joseph122134
Hendricks114268
Hamilton113292
Elkhart110128
Johnson1092106
Madison58459
Porter50522
Bartholomew49034
Clark47941
LaPorte42022
Tippecanoe3823
Howard37824
Delaware37636
Jackson3721
Shelby36822
Hancock32727
Floyd31739
Boone30535
Morgan27724
Vanderburgh2592
Montgomery23417
White2308
Decatur22431
Clinton2221
Noble20421
Grant19721
Dubois1903
Harrison18921
Henry16910
Greene16824
Monroe16512
Warrick16528
Dearborn16521
Vigo1538
Lawrence15223
Miami1401
Putnam1357
Jennings1294
Orange12422
Scott1203
Ripley1106
Franklin1098
Kosciusko1011
Carroll933
Daviess8416
Steuben812
Marshall801
Newton7610
Wayne756
Fayette747
Wabash742
LaGrange682
Jasper661
Washington511
Jay490
Fulton471
Clay461
Rush452
Randolph453
Jefferson431
Pulaski410
Whitley383
Owen351
Sullivan341
DeKalb331
Brown331
Starke323
Perry280
Wells270
Benton260
Huntington262
Knox250
Tipton241
Crawford230
Blackford222
Parke190
Spencer191
Switzerland190
Fountain182
Posey160
Gibson142
Adams131
Ohio130
Warren121
Vermillion100
Martin90
Union80
Pike60
Unassigned0161
West Lafayette
Scattered Clouds
67° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 67°
Kokomo
Overcast
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Hi: 73° Lo: 53°
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
Overcast
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Delphi
Broken Clouds
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Monticello
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Hi: 74° Lo: 53°
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Logansport
Overcast
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Hi: 74° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 64°
Cooler, less humid weather ahead by the weekend.
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