Confidence in this forecast has increased to medium, but it still is not high yet.
Some patches of some unsubstantial light rain/sleet/snow are possible tomorrow afternoon. A good chunk of it will be virga or evaporating on the way down, but some may make it to the surface.
Late in the day, after 4 p.m., we are fair game for light snow to begin to overspread our western counties & this will work eastward. With evaporative cooling & continued pull of Arctic air southeastward, temperatures will drop from 34-38 to 31-33.
Snow is likely tomorrow night. Slick areas on roads are possible in the night to Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the 21-25 range. Brisk winds may blow what snow there is around some.
This will be the first event to test our winter driving skills, despite insignificant accumulations.
Tuesday itself will feature some clearing skies, but lake effect snow will be over our northern areas from Jasper to Fulton counties to as far south as part of White, Cass & Miami counties. We will monitor to make sure if it gets any farther south.
Unusually cold weather will be in places with highs only 26-31 with wind chills 18-24.
So, here is the area of snow..............then some of the lake effect.
It is unclear where exactly the 1-2" band will set up & if there will be a +2" band. However, given the latest data, this is the best current forecast regarding the system & lake effect snowfall. Again, be prepared for our first travel impacts of the year.
There will definitely be a +2" band over Missouri to Illinois, but it is a question whether that gets in here.
Be prepared for tweaks to this map.
This is one huge storm system & we will be on the northern edge of it. If we could really tap into the deep tropical moisture that will be present farther southward, we would be in for an all-out winter storm with significant snowfall. That does not look to be the case, but it is snow & cold nonetheless.
Not only will it re enforce the Arctic air in, but some snow pack will enchance the cold. Also, a secondary storm system or potential secondary Nor'Easter, will put the kibosh on any big warm-up until after November 18.
Then, as we enter a very warm, wet phase of the MJO, temperatures will soar into the 50s & 60s. Some data event suggests storms & temps to the upper 60s in the November 18-25 period. Widespread 1-3.5" rains are also possible for that period.
After that, November 26-December 10 looks COLD with more opportunties for accumulating snowfall.