November 11, 12:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snowy, windy & cold!

Posted: Nov 11, 2019 12:24 PM
Updated: Nov 11, 2019 3:27 PM

We have seen these Arctic outbreaks in November (with snow) recently in 2018, 2014, 1996, 1995, 1991, 1986, 1976.  2019 will go down with the group, as well.

Every single one of these outbreaks of record-breaking stature were associated with significant typhoons (Several of them Category 5s & the rest 4s or high-end 3s) racing toward Alaska & becoming "bombs" or very intense, deep mid-latitude storms, which dislodged Arctic air.

When climatologist Brian Brentschneider of the University of Alaska-Anchorage looked at the correlation between November weather & December-February, he found this (Weak to Moderate Positive Correlation here, while much better correlation is found in southeastern Canada & north of Hudson Bay):

Conditions will continue to worsen this afternoon to evening & become rough.

The band of heavier snowfall with embedded lake effect band will move over the area with falling temperatures.

Roads will slicken up & become icy to snow-covered, visibility will go down & more blowing & drifting snowfall will occur.

Winds may gust to 30-40 mph at times from the north to north-northeast then north-northwest & single-digit wind chills, follows by -10 to 3 minimum wind chills will move in by tonight.

Current snowfall totals over the area range from a trace in the far south to 0.3" at West Lafayette to 1.5" in parts of Newton & Jasper counties.

1-3" is likely area-wide with some amounts exceeding 3" in our far north, northeast & east by Tuesday morning.

8-16 lows tonight will be accompanied by gusty winds will will drop that wind chill to -10 to 3. 

Tuesday looks like a record cold day with highs only 19-25.

Tuesday night looks near/record cold with lows of 7-13, but there will be a lack of wind.

If not for a light southwest wind commencing late, it would get even colder, given the snow pack.

A wave or two of snow snow showers will pass late Wednesday evening-night with less than 1" of accumulation in places.

Highs should reach 31-36 with strong southwest wind with 20s Wednesday night.

West Lafayette
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Monticello
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