November 11, 11:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: The Latest On the Early-Season Cold & Snow

Snow & more Arctic air area ahead.

Posted: Nov. 11, 2018 9:43 PM
Updated: Nov. 11, 2018 11:51 PM

Super Typhoon Yutu seems to have started a pattern that will not let go of the cold.  However, rather than Yutu remnants controlling these Arctic invasions & snow now, we are seeing the signals of the winter 2018-19 pattern get underway, bringing colder & snowier than normal regime.  The very things in the winter forecast that promote the cold & snow are showing thier colors & being activated, like the very warm Gulf/East Coast water & cold land reaction blowing up Nor'Easters & the big Bering Sea ridge, the above normal Canadian snowpack & the low, low solar output.

We should be seeing highs in the 52-56 range of the area still this time of year still pretty consistently. 

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Clouds will increase tonight & after lows 23-26, they should rise to 27-30 late.

A few patches of light snow, sleet &/or freezing drizzle are possible tomorrow morning.  Not only does it look patchy, but liquid amounts look to only amount to a trace.  Nonetheless, it doesn't take much when it is in the 20s to around 30, so put yellow caution up for 7-9 a.m. time period for commuting.

Snow should overspread area west to east during the afternoon.  It may begin briefly as a bit of cold rain in the far south.  As this precipitation occur & front moves in, temperatures should drop from 35-40 to 31-34.

Snow should be pretty steady through evening & into the night.  The system snow should be out by 5 a.m., but lake effect snow showers will continue in our northern & northeastern areas to as late as 1 p.m.  Elsewhere, skies will clear, but it will be cold with highs in the 20s to around 30 & wind chills in the teens to 20s.

This will be the first time this season that our winter driving skills will be tested.  Slick roadways are likely Monday night-Tuesday morning.

Road should be in good shape by late morning Tuesday, however, as it is still early in the season.

It appears that much of the viewing area will see around 1-1.5" of snow.  The 2-4" totals in the far northeast will be due to lake effect snowfall, largely Tuesday morning to midday.

The northwestern areas are looking at less than 1" of snow.

The scope of this storm system is huge & it will ride the entire Gulf & East Coast.  It will track far enough along the coast to keep it all rain in the big cities of the Northeast, but heavy snow will fall inland.  Flakes may fall also as far south as South Texas to Louisiana on the backside of it.  Check out the "Blue Norther" of Arctic air going all the way to coastal Mexico!  This is significant rarity so early in the season!

Note how that secondary system forms behind it & may blow up into a storm that would give the coastal Northeast snow & perhaps snow as far south as Mississippi, Louisiana & Arkansas.

We have to watch this one.  If consensus develops in the model solutions that it is going to track a bit more to the northwest, we could go from zero snowfall potential with sunshine Wednesday-Thursday to much higher likelihood of more snowfall in a hurry.

This may put the kibosh on the warmth trying to move eastward from the West.  Some data suggests 50s to western Illinois & Missouri Friday.  I have pulled back on us getting 50-55 though.  The warmest day of the next 7 looks to be Thursday with 40s.

This is consistent to what our winter forecast has been hinting at.  It is developing already with consistent cold & lots of Nor'Easters & coastal storms with snow deep into the South.  This is the winter in a nutshell.  It won't be brutal all the time, but below normal ALOT.

A weak clipper may bring a few rain/snow showers Friday, but it will re enforce another shot of cold air.

However, BIG changes are ahead.  There has been this signal since October to bring a surge of warmth in mid-November.  You can get a good idea of the pattern weeks out based on analog & model data & your own backlog of events, but the worst part of it is pinning down the exact time period.  You have to use terms like "early November" or "around mid-November" or give a date range to account for the "butterfly effect". 

It looks more & more like this surge will be in the November 19-26 range.  50s & 60s are possible with an active pattern of multiple systems of rain & even some storms.

There has also been a signal of much colder weather to follow with opportunities for accumulating snowfall.  This should occur in the November 28-December 10 period, it appears.

We have gone from Phase 1 to 2 to 3 to now 4 since Halloween with the MJO & the model data all points to our analog thinking of a shift to 5, 6, 7, then 8 now to November 25.

Now, the MJO is one of many...MANY things used to make long-range forecasts & its influence VARIES depending on the other factors at play at different times of year.  However, it can be a great indicator of the pattern shifts, especially in winter.

We are looking at the eastward progression of traveling masses of deep convection from the central Indian Ocean to the Pacific over 30- to 60-day periods.  Such convection's longevity can be linked in many respects to ENSO & El Nino episodes.  Where there is a lot of rain in one area, there is much less & sinking air in another in the Indian Ocean-Pacific area.  This has long-range complications to our weather even here in our viewing area.

There is so much convection east of India now to northeast of Australia, but the drier, sinking air is building into India.  This puts the MJO in that Phase 4, headed for Phase 5.

So, warm around Halloween & to start November, then we went to the cold with Phase 2 & 3.  It was much colder than what the MJO shows, so there were other factors at play in the cold, most notably Yutu remnants in the Bering Sea to North Pole.  We are 4, going to 5 this week, which is a bit colder than normal per MJO.  However, we know that temperatures will be 25 degrees below normal.  Again, other factors at play other than MJO, but it is contributing to the pattern.

Shift to 6, 7, 8 mid to late month promotes warmer weather in the central & eastern U.S. per MJO.  This means a period of relief from the early start to winter cold & snow!

There is good linkage of the precipitation.  We have turned drier after burst of rainfall in Phase 1.  Phase 6, 7, 8 show tendency for above normal precipitation with the warmer weather.

Warmer, wetter pattern before the cold, cold air & snow potential returns!

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