Four things looks slightly different in the new data tonight regarding the next three days.
1. Sunday looks a bit warmer & brighter.
Originally I went with 56 Greater Lafayette & 54-60 for the area last weekend & early this week for our area for Sunday.
New data tonight is trending back full circle to highs near that criteria as front slows a hair & likelihood of period of sun.
So, highs of 51-60 are likely Sunday (56 Greater Lafayette).
Temperatures will take tumble in evening as front accelerates southeastward through the viewing area as a couple isolated showers &/or some drizzle develops.
2. Snowfall amounts appear to be increasing a bit.
1" or less of snowfall for Monday has been the trend, but analysis tonight suggests that there may be a couple of corridors of 1-2" in parts of the area as it falls Monday morning to early afternoon. This, before tapering to more scattered lake effect snow showers/squalls & flurries (additional 1" or less).
There are some suggestions that these two bands may set up in the viewing area:
1. In the north &.....
2. In the southeast
Those seem to be the two areas of better-focused forcing.
We will monitor.
This would be a couple of bands of ana-frontal-type forcing: all behind the cold front in the strong north winds to 40 mph at times.
This latest NAM model run of the Kuchera Method of snowfall accumulation analysis shows amounts by very early Monday evening:
3. Tuesday looks even colder.
I went for a 25 for high at Greater Lafayette Tuesday with 22-27 elsewhere, a drop of a couple of degrees from previous forecasts.
4. Tuesday morning wind chills look even colder.
I went for lows of 8-14 with wind chills now -5 to 2.