November 10, 11:15 AM Weather Forecast Update

Big changes ahead with some snow & much colder temperatures, but substantial warmth down the road (but also wet weather).

Posted: Nov 9, 2019 10:57 AM
Updated: Nov 9, 2019 11:40 AM

After mostly cloudy night & early morning, skies have cleared.

A windy Saturday (southwest gusts as high as 32 mph), highs should run in the 40s to 50, but the wind will make it feel colder.

Clouds will increase later today.

There will be lots of clouds Sunday & part of the day will not be too windy (gusts to 22 mph), but the winds will crank up in the evening & tomorrow night (gusts to 40 mph).

A few isolated showers to patchy drizzle are possible later in the day through evening Sunday.

Highs of 45-56 are likely from northwest to southeast with temperatures falling behind the front as it progressing through tomorrow.

A few showers & drizzle should go to periodic snow north to south Monday morning.

Snow should occur in the 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. time frame for the viewing area as a whole.

Gusty northeast to north winds up to 40 mph will continue through Monday afternoon-evening.

Temperatures will run in the 20s to 30 with wind chills deep into the teens.

After 2 p.m., a few lake effect flurries & snow showers are possible, but any new accumulation looks less than 0.3".

1" or less of accumulation is likely with a few slick spots possible on bridges & overpasses to lesser-traveled secondary roads.

Thinking a band of 1-3" will occur just north of our area. 

Winds gusting 30-40 mph & lows 11-15 Monday night will result in wind chills down to 0, if not a bit below.

Highs Tuesday will be unseasonably cold at 23-28 with north winds at 15-25 mph, resulting in single-digit to teens wind chills all day.

With partly cloudy skies overall, a few lake effect snow showers & flurries are possible.

Lows of 9-14 are likely Tuesday night as wind diminish & skies clear.

The trend is now to bring the cold front & clipper through Wednesday night, not Thursday midday-afternoon.

So, any substantial warm-up will be lacking & a wave or two of some snow is possible Wednesday-Wednesday night with gusty winds up to 40 mph from the north-northeast to north.

A bit of very minor accumulation of 1" or less is possible. 

Highs on Wednesday should run 29-34.

Thursday looks dry & becoming mostly sunny with winds becoming light with highs only 28-33 with teens Thursday night.

Then, suddenly, with strong southwest winds, we warm up rapidly Friday.

Highs of 44-50 are possible as warm front races northward behind surface high pressure.

Next weekend looks mild & breezy to windy with highs 48-55.

A brief sharp cool-down may follow after some showers & thunder, then..........

November 20-23 looks especially warm with breezy to windy conditions & highs in the 50s & 60s.

After brief cool-down, another warm surge of 50s & 60s are possible November 25-27 with rain & some storms (severe outbreak possible in parts of the Mid- to Deep South U.S.).

Another severe outbreak Texas to the Carolinas may evolve December 2-3, while mild, wetter regime overall dominates our area & over the eastern U.S.

Cold West, warm central & East very late November through early December overall:

Wetter-than-normal weather should occur California & the Intermountain West & then Texas to the Northeast, right through our area.

I think the rainfall & snowfall anomalies in California & the West will be much higher than what this model shows.

I think we will end higher than what this model shows, as well, but it give you an idea.

Florida & the deep, deep South to eastern North Carolina will be drier than normal due to that southeastern ridge & Bermude-like high.

I do think Arctic air will return in late December with risk of first substantial winter weather event in our area near or after Christmas.

The reservoir of Arctic air will re-charge in Canada, specifically over northwestern Canada & ridge will begin to build into parts of Alaska & far western Canada (which will help to dislodge the cold southward).

There are signs we may see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming episode in the far Northern Hemisphere in early December, which usually precedes an Arctic outbreak by a couple of weeks.

We will monitor, but if these trends hold, below zero temperatures may occur in late December.

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