November 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is a longer-range outlook update.

Posted: Nov 1, 2019 9:47 PM
Updated: Nov 1, 2019 11:04 PM

Highs today ran 43-49.

Typhoon Bualoi caused the very first cold wave, now the remnants of Typhoon Matmo & what will likely become Halong & perhps even Nakri (in what has been a very active season) will help to push cold southeastward.

Each is tending to bomb out as mid-latitude storms in the Bering Sea to far western Alaska, which forcing the upper ridging & record heat to the Arctic & dislodging the cold waves & Arctic air into the U.S. east of the Rockies.  These conditions are a big part of the massive fires in California.

There is a strong correlation to typhoon remnants tracking into Alaska & Arctic outbreaks in the eastern U.S.  Two helped to enhance the historic 1991 cold outbreak to the central & eastern U.S. in November 1991.

So, this pattern is & will continue to cause a battle between Arctic outbreaks & a warm southeast U.S. that tries to expand.

We'd have these cold waves blasting into the northern U.S. without the typhoons anyway, but they are causing them to be much more intense on the order of record cold, highly-unseasonable in magnitude & to reach as far south as Mexico & northwest Cuba.

They are driving record warmth into Alaska & the Arctic.  People were golfing with green grass in Anchorage on Halloween afternoon!

Parts of Alaska are running 30 degrees above normal.

Inuvik, on the Arctic Circle as been sunny & in the 40s (record warm levels).

Breezy to windy forecast with more cool than warm weather.  35% coverage of rainfall PM Tuesday to Wednesday AM.  Bit better coverage Thursday with falling temperatures after a rise to the 50s.

Coverage is 35% & 45% due to the Gulf being gutted of good moisture & CAPE by the Arctic airmass.  It will take some time for recovery & re-loading.  Strong northerly winds have upwelled some cooler water from great depths as well.

Any severe risk looks to be confined to the Deep South, specifically over southeastern Texas to Louisiana.

Warms up some above normal early in the week, but Arctic air looms!

Fire weather continues in the Far West.

Nudge of colder air comes Wednesday.

Fire weather continues in the Far West.

Arctic blast surges in at the end of next week after two brief surges of warmer weather.

Dry winds & significant fire danger will continue in California.

Arctic blast next Friday to part of next weekend bring January feel here.

However, the news continues to look bleak for California with heat, Santa Anas & very dry air.

Surge of warmth with rain/storms near/at mid-November with powerhouse storm (with 60s).

The South may get severe weather outbreak.  We will see how far north it gets here.

Arctic air blasts in after that!

Unusually cold air will dominate latter November.

Dry, hot winds will dominate the Far West with continued, bleak high fire danger.

A few very minor snow systems are possible.

Lows near 0 could occur in parts of the area.

Pattern should flip by the very end of November to early December.

First half of December looks mild & wet, while the west is cold & wet & snowy. 

This is good news for California & all of the Far West as rain arrives (could spell trouble in fire-scarred areas, however).

This shows up in the big change over Alaska.

Also, Southeast upper ridge will exude its influence.

Wet pattern will occur southern California to our region.  Bulls-eye of greatest precipitation anomalies I think will be southern California to Arizona & from Missouri & Arkansas to our area.

After mid-December, gate for Arctic air should be re-opened after a mild, wet stretch.

Temperatures should tank & risk of getting some winter weather to winter storm event(s) will go up near & after Christmas to New Years.

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Dry, hot & humid with thickening smoke, then Thursday storms...
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