November 19, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update

Change Underway.....

Posted: Nov 19, 2019 4:50 PM
Updated: Nov 19, 2019 7:05 PM

West is getting active with Flood Watches up California to Nevada, Utah & Arizona with Winter Storm Warnings up.  Snow may reach levels as low as 3000' deep into southern Arizona.

There is even a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather for the desert areas of southeastern California, southern Nevada & southern & western Arizona.

This shows deep trough developing in West, while higher heights & ridging will begin to evolve in a chunk of the East.

Low clouds are locked in, but some clearing is not too far off to our southwest in Illinois.

We are in the 40s, but 60 is now in western Illinois to southwestern Iowa with the 70 line Kansas to far southwest Missouri.

The change is coming.

After lows of 28-36 this morning (much of the area 30-32) with some freezing fog/mist & patchy light freezing drizzle, we saw a few spotty showers increase to scattered showers.  Now we are back to a few spotty showers & patchy drizzle.

Highs today have run 42-47 with much of the day overcast.

A few patches of drizzle/mist are possible tonight with dense fog developing.  Visibility may drop below 0.25 mile over a large area.

Lows will run 31-36.  Watch for a slick spot or two on bridges & overpasses.

Highs Wednesday should run 50-56 with a south breeze & dense fog & low clouds in the morning, turning to fog dissipation, cloud breakage & to clearing in the afternoon.

Skies should turn cloudy again Wednesday night with lows only at 41-46.

Thuresday looks windy with rain in the morning to early afternoon becoming much more showery, followed by a low-topped line of showers & thunder in the evening-early night.

Risk of isolated severe storms will occur in central Kansas & then potentially in a small area of Missouri to western Illinois.

Southwest winds may gust to 40 mph with late-day highs of 55-62 here.

Lows Thursday night, with brisk northwest wind, will drop to 34-38.

0.30-0.60" of rainfall still seems likely.

Warmth will be on the move east with late day/evening daily maximum temperatures.

Friday highs should run 38-46 with mostly cloudy skies south to mostly sunny skies in the north.

After 26-31 Friday night, a wave of snow showers is possible Saturday morning to midday.  Localized very minor accumulation is possible.

Mostly cloudy skies & highs 35-40 should follow.

After 20s Saturday night with heavy frost & potential of fog, highs Sunday should reach the 40-46 range.

Rainfall should pass Tuesday-Tuesday night with potential of isolated embedded storms.

Southwest winds may gust to 40 mph with 0.60-1.10" rainfall possible.

Highs should run in the 50s Monday (dry) & 50s to 60s Tuesday-Tuesday night (wet).

Severe weather is likely in the Deep South.  However, kinematic & dynamic features with some CAPE support potential of some isolated severe risk as far north as southern Iowa, Missouri. 

We will see if we can get in on any isolated severe risk.

Note these impressive temperatures Tuesday night.  58-64 is possible.

Right now, Wednesday looks dry & windy from the northwest with partly to mostly cloudy skies & highs in the 40s.

Thanksgiving looks dry & breezy with sunshine, west winds & highs in the 40s to 50s.

Another windy, warm storm with rain, gusts 40 mph & thunder is likely in the November 29-December 1 time frame.

0.70-1.20" rainfall is possible.

45

Warmth will spread north & northeastward.  70 may get to the Ohio River.  Low 70s could occur in Kentucky.

Severe risk is likely in the South (of the U.S.), but risk may reach an appreciable level up to the Ohio River with current parameters suggesting even MARGINAL RISK into part of our area.

Another warm, windy, wet system comes in around December 3-4.

These are projected night-time temperatures with even warmer days expected.

With another 0.60-1" rain, Wabash may reach flood stage or a bit more as fields become very wet & with ponding.

More severe weather is likely in the South of the U.S.

After mid-December, cold will dominate again with risk of winter storm going up.

Stratospheric warming episode forecast for mid-December translates to bitter to near/record cold in early to mid January with "Polar Vortex" outbreaks.  Winter storms of snow are also likely.

Complete flip should occur after mid-January with potential of a sudden 80-degree temperature jump out of the blue (seemingly).  Tables should turn again late, late January to early February with potential of another round of bitter "Polar Vortex" event with winter storm preceding it.

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